Archive for the ‘Equity Markets’ Category
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 6:48 AM |
The global equity markets are down approximately 2% overnight for a variety of reasons, including:
1. Citi and BofA will likely be forced by regulators to raise more capital. Company shares are down 7-8% on this news. It also seems likely that regulators will force changes on the boards of these companies. Do not be surprised to see management changes as well. Has Ken Lewis become a government liability based upon his assertion of being pressured by Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke to complete the BofA-Merrill Lynch merger?
Is this story of increased capital needs really news? I don’t think so.
On the regional bank front . . . Suntrust, Regions Financial, and KeyCorp are speculated to need increased capital.
When it is widely accepted that our domestic banking system still has $750 billion to $1 trillion in embedded losses, it can’t be the case that all the banks are fine. In my opinion, Geithner did investors a disservice last week in promoting the overall health of the banking industry.
Bloomberg provides more insight: Citigroup, Bank of America Decline on Capital Report.
2. Markets are also down based upon some weak earnings news, increased loan loss provisions at NAB (National Australia Bank), and price declines in commodities due to the impact of the swine flu outbreak.
In my opinion, the markets and investors have gotten somewhat complacent given the rally in equities since early March. I still view risks as very high. It is growing increasingly likely that we will have a meaningful government presence as equity holders in some critical industries for a protracted period. This development will not only occur in the United States but in many regions globally. The impact of this government presence will effect not only specific companies but, in turn, industries as a whole. (more…)
Tags: bank of America capital needs, capital needs at Suntrust, Citigroup capital needs, Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke pressure Ken Lewis, Ken Lewis, Keycorp, loan loss provisions at National Australia Bank, Regions Financial
Posted in Banking Institutions, Equity Markets, General | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 23rd, 2009 2:06 PM |
Our Economic All-Star Laszlo Birinyi has recently had some very good calls on the market. His funds are outperforming the major stock market averages by 10-15%. Birinyi is an excellent stock picker but also has an experienced professional’s “feel” for the market.
His weekly Blogger Sentiment Poll provides us an easy snapshot as to current investor attitudes. Recall that when a bullish reading approaches 30%, it is an indication of the market being oversold. Similarly, if a bullish reading approaches 70% it is an indication of the market being overbought.
The market overall has done somewhat better over the last few weeks but has given some of that improvement back in this week’s trading. In investment terms, this price action is known as “running in place,” “range trading,” or “moving sideways.”
Not surprisingly, the readings in Birinyi’s polls indicate a very balanced short term sentiment.
LD
Tags: Laszlo Birinyi sentiment poll, market moving sideways, market running in place, market sentiment, trading range
Posted in Equity Markets, General, Laszlo Birinyi, Wall Street | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 22nd, 2009 5:45 PM |
As we work our way through the 1st quarter earnings reports, what have we learned?
1. Earnings for certain tech companies (Google, E-Bay, Apple, Qualcomm) have beat expectations. The fact that these companies have large cash positions and are not overly burdened with debt has benefitted them.
2. Major money center bank (Citi, BofA, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo) earnings looked good on the surface but there remain real questions about the quality and transparency of the numbers. The Bank Stress Tests hang over this sector. Independent analysis indicates that banks in general are lending less as credit writedowns continue to increase. The earnings in these banks are focused more on trading activities and mortgage refinancing while core consumer banking is quite weak. The strength in trading and refinancing is directly linked to government supported actions (related to AIG, Fed purchases of mortgage and government securities). Many analysts question whether the earnings from trading are repeatable while core banking activity is a drag.
3. Earnings for regional banks (KeyCorp, First Horizon, Bank of New York, Suntrust, Regions) and banks without sizable trading businesses are weak across the board. Credit chargeoffs on existing loans (credit cards, residential, commercial mortgages, corporate loans) continue to move higher and limited demand for new credit are hurting these institutions. (more…)
Tags: 1st quarter earnings review, bank earnings, Bank Stress Tests, consumer banking, consumer company earnings, credit chargeoffs, earnings from trading with AIG, equity earnings, industrial company earnings, regional bank earnings, review of 1st quarter earnings, shadow banking system
Posted in Economy, Equity Markets, Wall Street | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 11th, 2009 6:45 PM |
Please join me Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. 
What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances? So much to cover.
My guest will be Louis George Rieger, Chief Investment Strategist at Greenwich Investment Management. Following graduation from Yale Law School, George accepted a position at T. Rowe Price Associates LLC, where he became an officer and stockholder. In 1984, George founded RRH Capital Management, Inc. At RRH, George established the firm’s record in the management of not-rated, tax exempt bonds and high yield equities. George founded Greenwich Investment Management in 2006. George’s legal education has proven valuable in structuring municipal bond issues. He brings over 35 years of experience in the securities industry. (more…)
Tags: Economy, markets, No Quarter Radio
Posted in Economy, Equity Markets, General, No Quarter Radio, Risk, Wall Street | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 3:09 PM |
One of our Economic All-Stars is Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors. In the spirit of being totally equitable, I should have also posted Tom Atteberry’s name next to Bob’s. Bob and Tom were jointly named 2008 Morningstar Fixed Income Managers of the Year.
Bob is currently taking a leave of absence from First Pacific but Tom is equally outstanding. I had the pleasure of making his acquaintance while I worked at JP Morgan. Tom Atteberry is a pro’s pro. He spoke to Bloomberg earlier today and made these comments, which I took in longhand, so I am not quoting but I listened very carefully. Tom opined:
1. The current environment is the worst time to get into bonds. Why?
2. The creditworthiness of individuals and companies across the economy will only get worse from here and that deteriorating credit is not currently priced into the market.
3. U. S. government debt (Treasuries) represent NO value at current levels. If a fair expected rate of return is between 2-3% and a longer term rate of inflation is also between 2-3%, the rate on a 10 yr. maturity Treasury note should be in the vicinity of 5%. That note is currently trading at 2.85%. Don’t overpay for an asset just because somebody else is, in this case the Federal Reserve. (more…)
Tags: Bob Rodriguez, credit, deteriorating credit, Economy, Fed Buying mortgages, Federal reserve buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, Federal Reserve shrinking their balance sheet, First Pacific Advisors, relative value of U.S. Treasuries, Tom Atteberry
Posted in Bob Rodriguez, Economy, Employment, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, First Pacific Advisors, Freddie Mac, General, Ginnie mae, Inflation, Mortgages, Risk, Tom Atteberry | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 7th, 2009 10:08 AM |
The stream of data and market moving news is non-stop. I found these items of interest and look to share them with you as I believe they provide interesting insights and perspectives from around the world. I beg your indulgence if some of these items are not news to you, but if they are I hope they help you “navigate the economic landscape.”
1. Australia’s central bank cut its overnight lending rate to 3%, the lowest level in 49 years. While that rate is one of the highest rates in the developed world, it was widely expected to be left unchanged. Australia has had one of the strongest economies in the world. This cut is an indication the Australian central bank believes their economy is slipping into a recession.
2. Japan’s exports are reported to be down 40% versus a year ago. Additionally, Japan’s industrial production is reported to be down 30+% during the same time period. These economic figures are significantly weaker than most other developed economies. As a frame of reference, most other developed economies’ industrial production is down 10-15%. Clearly, Japan is so dependent on exports and it is now paying the price of not having more fully diversified its economic foundation.
3. Gold is now trading near $880/oz. A month ago this precious metal was trading slightly above $1000/oz. Why is gold down recently? Coming out of the G-20, there are expectations that the IMF may sell some gold reserves to raise funds for low-income countries. I commented the other day that gold is not perfectly correlated with inflation due to changing fundamentals and technical variables in the gold market. This development with the IMF is a perfect case in point of my assertion. (more…)
Tags: Add new tag, AIG, AIG selling asset management division, Australia cuts overnight lending rate, earnings for S&P 500, G20, gold, gold price declines, Japan's exports and industrial production declines, Japanese economy, Ken Rogoff, rating agencies receiving government assistance
Posted in AIG, Australia, Bailout, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Business, Current Affairs, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Equity Markets, Foreign Affairs, G20, General, Global Finance, S&P 500, Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 4th, 2009 10:07 AM |
I much prefer a rallying stock market, but I am not a day trader trying to catch moves for quick flips. I look for changes in economic fundamentals (incorporating both private sector and public sector inputs), assess those changes with market technicals (overbought and oversold conditions), and position myself accordingly.
The big wild card in current analysis is the impact of public sector inputs. Many of the maneuvers utilized by the Treasury and Federal Reserve have never been used prior to this economic downturn. Are they working? To what extent? What are the unintended consequences? What is the time delay from implementing a program to measuring its impact on the economy? These questions are the topics of protracted discussions by economists, bankers, analysts, and money managers around the globe. I’d also like to address them here at Sense on Cents.
My market instincts tell me that programs injecting trillions of dollars across wide swaths of the market are not without costs. These costs in the form of “crowding out“, distorted competition, changed behaviors (AIG undercutting insurance rates), moral hazards, and inflation are very real. The challenge is assessing the risks of these long term costs versus the necessity of providing sufficient capital and liquidity backstops to support the economy. (more…)
Tags: crowding out, economic fundamentals, Fibonacci Retracement, moral hazards, more government bailouts, rallying stock market, relaxation of mark to market, technical analysis
Posted in Bailout, Bank Failure, Banking Institutions, Credit Risk, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Government funds, Obama Administration, Tim Geithner, Wall Street | 14 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 1:14 PM |
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown just delivered a statement highlighting the results of the G-20 conference in London. There must have been a lot of work done behind the scenes over the last few months because it’s hard to imagine there was a lot of debate over issues within a 36 hour time frame at this conference. I will grant the world’s political leaders their due as it is most important at times like these to convey a strong, uniform front.
Let’s review the objectives and commitments, each followed by questions and/or comments that I have:
1. Address countries providing tax havens.
My question: who will police?
2. Develop a Financial Accounting Stability Board to regulate currently unregulated financial entities, primarily hedge funds.
My questions: how will it be staffed, operated, and judgments adjudicated? (I don’t like FASB as the acronym to be confused with Federal Accounting Standards Board)
3. Develop global policies and outline to address compensation
My questions: who and how will this be implemented? how will it be regulated? will there be punishments for those not participating?
4. Develop a global systemic risk oversight body.
My Question: who and how? (more…)
Tags: G-20 commitment to address a global systemic risk oversight body, G-20 commitment to address global approach to deal with toxic assets, G-20 commitment to address tax havens, G-20 commitment to develop Financial Accounting Stability Board, G-20 commitment to develop global stimulus plan, g-20 commitment to kickstarting international trade, G-20 commitment to maintain a fiscal expansionary posture, g-20 commitment to the IMF, G-20 goals and commitments, G20, Gordon Brown's G-20 statement, Toxic Assets
Posted in China, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Equity Markets, European Union, G20, Global Finance, Government funds, International Monetary Fund, Obama Administration, Stimulus Plan, Wall Street | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 31st, 2009 7:47 PM |
The markets, overall, experienced a very solid rebound this month. Technically, the market got oversold bottoming out on March 6th when the S&P 500 hit the devilish level of 666!! Perhaps some divine intervention prevailed and shed a wee bit of grace on the market in the spirit of Saint Patrick. Perhaps not, as well. In any event, we rebounded close to 20% over the last three weeks. The bounce has allowed us to catch our breath but I caution everybody to remain on guard.
The rebound gained support from the following factors as well:
1. stabilization in the weekly unemployment claims at the 650k; level
2. improved figures in housing starts and new home sales;
3. speculation that the FASB will relax the mark-to-market; (more…)
Tags: bond market review for March 2009, equity market review for March 2009, Equity Markets, FASB mark to market relaxation, March 2009 market review, market review, quantitative easing by Federal reserve, risks in market
Posted in Economy, Employment, Equity Markets, Risk, Unemployment, Wall Street | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 12:26 PM |
I am a proud graduate of the College of the Holy Cross, a Jesuit institution in Worcester, MA. The strength of a Jesuit education lies in the principles of Logic and Morality. While I fully appreciated my classes in Economics, German, Philosophy, and others, my classes in Logic and Morality made the greatest impact on me. Those classes forced me to think, not make rash judgments, take positions, and defend them.
Fast forward to 2009 and a banking industry facing hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of unrealized losses. How do we most effectively, efficiently, and expeditiously address the health of this banking system so that our economy and population can regain its footing and prosper? Let me revert back to the late ’70s and early ’80s and the principles instilled in me by those Jesuits.
My Logic class utilized “decision trees.” My Morality class was based on the principle of “the greatest good for the greatest number.”
What have we learned over the last 6 months, as well as the last 16 years, to help us chart our way forward? (more…)
Tags: AIG, Bank Nationalization, bank shareholder equity, banking losses, bankinig industry, class warfare, College of the Holy Cross, Democratic Congress, executive compensation, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, government interest rates, Logic, Moral Hazard, Morality, People's republic of China, populist outrage
Posted in American Consumers, Bank Nationalization, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Congress, Democratic Party, Economy, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Obama Administration, Wall Street | 11 Comments »
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