Sense on Cents

Is the All Powerful Federal Reserve omniscient, omnipotent, and omnipresent? Any institution that purports to be transparent but ultimately clouds itself in a shroud of “financial intrigue” deserves serious questioning. Congressional efforts on this front regularly fall woefully short. With a few exceptions, serious media analysis of the Fed is also deficient. Fortunately, the Wall Street Journal provides a reasonable overview of recent Fed maneuvers, Fed to Keep Lid on Bond Buys. Let’s navigate the inner workings of the Fed and play devil’s advocate in the process.

The WSJ highlights:

Fed officials have become more confident recently that they have stabilized the economy and set the stage for recovery. But divisions are brewing within the Fed over whether it should do more to speed the healing, pause, or start pulling back to avoid an outbreak of inflation.

Those crosscurrents are likely to inhibit bold new strokes by the Fed at its next meeting, in contrast to earlier in the year, when a bleak outlook spurred aggressive action.

At long last, a hint of sanity on the inflation front emanates from within the hallowed halls of the kingdom of the Federal Reserve.

Please recall that when the Fed announced its increased level of aggressive quantitative easing, the 10 yr Treasury rallied 50 basis points from a 3.1% to a 2.6% in one day. That sort of move is unprecedented. The 10yr, even with the Fed’s support, has since retraced 1.2% in the last three months. Where would the 10yr Treasury be without Fed support? 4%, 4.25%, 4.5%? Who could estimate for sure? (more…)