Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 6:30 PM |
Monday’s price action in the equity markets was particularly interesting. The market opened firm, up approximately 1%, and continued to trade with a very firm tone all day. What precipitated the strong tone? Fed chair Ben Bernanke was interviewed on 60 Minutes last evening. On that show, Bernanke Defends Recovery Efforts in Rare TV Interview.
First and foremost, it is very uncharacteristic for anybody from the Fed to consent to an interview targeted at a general audience. I view this as Bernanke trying to make the case for himself, the Fed, and the economy during these challenging times. In fairly short order, Bernanke has gained significantly greater credibility than his colleague, Secretary Geithner. Bernanke also spoke well of the economy turning around later this year IF the financial system recovers. That is a mighty big IF!! (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 4:17 PM |
A loyal reader shared with me a recent posting from former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich. Earlier today I cross posted a piece from No Quarter in which Reich was less than complimentary of Secretary Geithner. Well, let’s see what Mr. Reich has to say about President Obama’s economic program: Is Obamanomics Conservative or Revolutionary?
Prior to delving into my thoughts and commentary on Reich (or anybody), I always find it useful to consider the perspective of the writer. In regard to Mr. Reich, let us not forget that Robert Reich Excludes White Male Construction Workers from Obama Stimulus Plan. Utilizing that perspective, Mr. Reich would be considered to be more than slightly left of center. Additionally, in considering the Obama economic plans, I think it is critically important to incorporate the economic plans and agenda of the Democrats in Congress. These Congressional leaders have a major influence in this process. These Democrats, including David Obey (D-WI), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Harry Reid (D-NV), Barney Frank (D-MA), Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Chris Dodd (D-CT), and Steny Hoyer (D-MD) amongst others are major players in the stimulus, budget, and Omnibus bill that have come down from Congress. It is not totally clear where the lines are drawn between the White House and Congress on all the economic issues. That said, let’s see what Mr. Reich has to say and then critique his assessments of Obamanomics. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2009 7:30 PM |
SAME GREAT SHOW, BRAND NEW NAME! Join me this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? So much to cover.
The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 1:00 PM |
On January 31st, I wrote a lighthearted piece, Know Your Customer, about my personal experience with an Asian counterparty. The lesson I learned from that experience back in the late 1980’s was that business dealings in Asia are ultimately “a question of honor.” Are you honorable in your manner? Are you honorable in your engagement? Are you honorable on a going forward basis? Are you honorable in both word and deed? Obviously in a meaningful relationship, this code of honor must run both ways.
Our relationship with the People’s Republic of China hinges on American consumers’ purchase of Chinese exports and ongoing Chinese purchase of U.S. government debt. As I just highlighted in my most recent piece, Chinese exports fell 26% in February 2009. Numbers like that will make any government uneasy. During challenging economic periods, the tenuous nature of any economic relationship is captured in understanding the nuances of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 10:35 AM |
If I go to a comedian, I look to be entertained. I do not look for piercing insights on global issues. Alternately, when I want cogent financial analysis I don’t go to an entertainer. The following photo and captions from the New York Post are self-explanatory:
If you want to review a topic which is less entertaining, but much more critically important in navigating the economic landscape, let’s take a quick look at how the Chinese export engine is humming. Uh-oh!! Chinese exports in February dropped almost 26% from a year earlier. That decline displays an acceleration in the 17% drop experienced in January. Thank you John Mauldin, one of our Economic All-Stars (left sidebar), for providing us this less than entertaining but extremely insightful perspective, China: Exports Drop.
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 12th, 2009 6:30 PM |
The world of insurance occupies almost every corner of our lives. Life, home, auto, disability, long term care, personal articles. Rather than addressing what is insured, an easier question may be to ask what isn’t insured.
Given the intricate web of products and accompanying risks, we clearly are not currently dealing with your grandfathers’ insurance companies.
All that said, insurance is a relatively simple business. A policy is underwritten, premiums are collected and invested, and on and on we go. In fact, with major policies incorporating outsized risks, insurers can “lay off” risk with reinsurers, such as Munich Reinsurance, Swiss Reinsurance, and General Reinsurance. One would think this should be a steady and stable, if not quiet, industry. It would be such if companies did not reach for outsized returns through ever greater risks, primarily in the products in which they invested. While The Quiet Company, Northwestern Mutual invests primarily in high quality corporate bonds, entities like AIG trafficked in esoteric CDS. Hartford Financial Services played in the lower credit sectors of the commercial mortgage space, sub-prime mortgages, and junk bonds. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 11th, 2009 12:54 PM |
I will provide my insights and perspectives on Charlie Rose’s interview of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner last evening. The interview has been broken down into 6 separate clips, with my commentary preceding each clip.
Part 1
In this clip, Geithner wears both the political and policy hats. While promoting the Obama agenda initially (housing, education, healthcare, energy), he then turns toward the specifics of unlocking the consumer credit securitization markets via the TALF (Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility). This facility attempts to restart the securitization market and model which I wrote was broken back on November 12th (The Wall Street Model Is Broken…and Won’t Soon be Fixed). That market provides approximately 40% of the financing to a wide array of consumer finance markets. Geithner attempts to portray a measure of confidence and aggressiveness. The market has currently responded with a vote of no confidence.
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 5:40 PM |
On the heels of the Bernie Madoff fiasco, there was massive pressure on the gross incompetence displayed by the SEC. Not unlike a police department that is under fire, the SEC needed a high profile case to gain a measure of vindication. Enter Allen Stanford and Stanford Financial.
I am not here to defend Allen Stanford nor any of the activities that transpired in his offshore bank located in Antigua. However, the SEC also froze the assets of all clients housed in Stanford Financial’s brokerage operation based in Houston. Unlike Bernie Madoff, who did not employ a custodian, the bulk of Stanford Financial’s assets were housed at Pershing Financial, one of the largest custodians in the business. While the concerns revolving around Stanford are in the Caribbean, the SEC’s act of freezing ALL customer accounts has been the death of this brokerage entity. Hundreds of legitimate jobs have been eliminated. Thousands of customers have faced unnecessary and undue financial hardships since February 17th as a result. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 3:35 PM |
A great American and loyal reader (thanks FL) shared a report recently produced by not-for-profits Essential Information and The Consumer Education Foundation. This report, Sold Out: How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America, has gotten little to no attention in the general media. What a shame. I find of particular interest the fact that a number of the currently discussed regulatory changes are directly addressing the points highlighted in this report. I personally view these proposed regulatory changes as substantiating this report and adding credibility to its effort. For the naysayers in the audience, I would ask you to review the report and reconsider your assessment.
I was struck a month ago by the incriminating statements put forth by Senator Chuck Hagel and CIA head Leon Panetta, which I highlighted on February 16th in Legalized Bribery. Those statements bluntly indict our massive system of lobbying, political fundraising, and the quality of those running for elected office! In light of that article, I am more and more convinced that our elected officials have turned their offices into massive for profit machines at the expense of our public well being.
I commend the authors of this report, Roger Weissman and James Donahue, for taking the time and making the extensive effort to expose the truth. The full report, 231 pages in length, spares no detail. In studying it, I found the information and analysis riveting. Let me try to summarize it for you. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 3:49 PM |
In the midst of this economic turmoil in which many people are increasingly cash constrained, a cottage industry has developed which preys on the most vulnerable in our society. This industry facilitates short term loans in exchange for the borrower’s paycheck or tax refund.
The companies that participate in this lending should not only be outed but they should also be prosecuted for this activity.
Bloomberg writes how More Americans Turn to Tax Refund Loans to Pay Monthly Bills. With implied rates of interest on these loans from 50% to 500%, this is loan sharking at its worst!! Where are the Better Business Bureau and Attorney Generals when you really need them? (more…)
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SAME GREAT SHOW, BRAND NEW NAME! Join me this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? So much to cover.
Given the intricate web of products and accompanying risks, we clearly are not currently dealing with your grandfathers’ insurance companies.
