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Mortgage Deduction . . . Crossing the Rubicon

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27th, 2009 1:18 PM |

The mortgage interest deduction has been a cornerstone of American tax and housing policy. In fact, I can’t count the number of times I conversed with my accountant about maintaining mortgage debt based upon the feeling it was the one deduction the government would never touch.  Well, never just pulled into the driveway!

For clarification purposes and at the request of a number of readers, allow me to address this deduction. As proposed in President Obama’s budget, for those households currently paying taxes in the 33% and 35% brackets, the mortgage deduction would now be at a 28% rate. The proposal would not take effect until 2011. 

This Mortgage Deduction Looks Less Sacred. Its effect can and is hotly debated by economists and housing analysts. In my opinion, though, there are a few points not debatable. This initiative is another method of achieving wealth redistribution. It will make housing more expensive at the margin. It will put pressure on housing in general and in upper income areas specifically. Given that there are no initiatives proposed to support those needing Jumbo mortgages, this tax change will only further negatively impact this sector of the market. 

Lastly, is this Obama’s “crossing the Rubicon?” Don’t think for a second that this initiative just developed. How and why did we NEVER hear about this during the campaign? Did he know how negatively it would be received? 

In summary, having “crossed the Rubicon,” how far does he penetrate into the territory? 

We’ll be watching, but knowing how wildly optimistic his growth projections are in his proposed budget, Obama will need more $$$. The mortgage interest deduction just became fair game. 

I need to call my accountant.

LD

Shake Hands With Uncle Sam

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27th, 2009 5:30 AM |

uncle-samWhen trading bonds on Wall Street, I always wanted to know what the largest accounts were doing. A handful of these accounts were so massive that in order to make a meaningful change in their portfolio they had to execute trades of monstrous size. In executing trades with these clients, there was enormous risk. That said, if I did not provide enough liquidity to the accounts then we would stop seeing their inquiry. Information is everything, so not seeing their business was even more dangerous than printing some of it. Given this balancing act, I would try to pick and choose my spots. Amongst these clients is the largest bond manager in the country, Pacific Investment Management Company, otherwise known as Pimco, headed by the legendary Bill Gross (one of our Economic All-Stars highlighted in the lower left sidebar).   

Bill offers his thoughts on a monthly basis. Anybody with even passing interest in the markets should read his remarks. I will offer an overview: (more…)

Looking Back and Looking Forward

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 24th, 2009 2:41 PM |

John Mauldin, one of our Economic All-Stars (see sidebar on left), provides personal insights and perspectives that are truly cutting edge. Additionally, John has relationships that provide real clarity. 

John Mauldin recently published commentary from Paul McCulley of Pimco and former Fed chairman Paul Volker. I had the good fortune of working with Mr. McCulley in the late ’90s at Union Bank of Switzerland. He is a true gem. Mr. Volker, like him or not, is regarded as one of the world’s leading central bankers. Their comments are both comprehensive and understandable as we look to navigate the economic landscape!

Mr. McCulley looks backward and reviews the following:

  — the basics of our banking system
  — a review of the “unregulated” shadow banking system
  — the deleveraging process
  — questions on the implementation of the government backstops, including the Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility to restart the consumer lending markets, and the public-private partnership. (more…)

Tune In to Larry Doyle’s “Dollars and Sense” on No Quarter Radio

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 5:22 PM |

Please join us this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for LD’s Dollars and Sense. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere!

We have two very interesting guests joining us. Lynn Marshall has one of the most unique backgrounds in the world of finance today. How does one develop a background that includes senior level experience in investment banking, agriculture, and community banking? Think Lynn has some amazing perspectives on the economy and markets? Don’t miss him.

Additionally, in light of the developments at Stanford Financial, we are very happy to have John Moynihan return to our show to discuss the dynamics in the world of offshore banking. Find out more than you could ever imagine by talking to these enlightened experts on LD’s Dollars and Sense, starting at 8 p.m. ET.

What are your questions and comments for me? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!
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More Legalized Bribery!!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 21st, 2009 6:43 PM |

Why do I believe we will see a wave of material on this topic? Well, whenever I see it I plan on updating my post Legalized Bribery so that Former Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and current CIA head Leon Panetta are continually vindicated. 

Who lived rent free for 5 years in the Washington townhouse of a CT Congressman, directed hundreds of thousands of dollars to that Congressman’s husband’s lobbying effort, served on the board of Freddie Mac when it stifled Republican overtures, and now serves one door away from the Oval office? 

Did Rahm Emanuel declare that rent-free arrangement as income? Did he pay taxes on it? Did he share that arrangement with the Congressional ethics committee? Rahm’s ‘Rent’ Is Just the Tip of Ethics Iceberg

Change? No, this Legalized Bribery has been going on for a while.

LD

Legalized Bribery ***UPDATE***

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 18th, 2009 8:55 AM |

(Editor’s Note: This post is an update to the piece Legalized Bribery, which was originally published on 2/16/09)

***Update*** After Bernie Madoff, it appears the next largest, fraudulent investment scheme is centered on an entity known as Stanford Financial. This company has offices in Houston and also operated an offshore bank in the Caribbean. While this story is developing, it is not surprising that the main principal, Allen Stanford, knew how to play the “Legalized Bribery” game I highlighted on February 16th. Who benefitted from his millions in gifts and lobbying? Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Greg Meeks (D-NY), Bill Nelson (D-FL), Pete Sessions (R-TX), former CA governor Gray Davis, and the Democratic Party. Check it out: Texas Businessman Sought Influence in Corridors of Capitol

I will continue to update this story on an ongoing basis. In the meantime, you can access my original piece entitled Legalized Bribery.

Legalized Bribery

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 16th, 2009 6:57 PM |

Quality business relationships are always mutually beneficial. If they are not mutually beneficial, then they will not thrive or perhaps even last at all. A strong business relationship, like any personal relationship, needs a foundation of honesty andmoney_signintegrity. As in any relationship, there will be plenty of instances in which the parties have disagreements and misunderstandings. If the relationship is strong enough, it can not only endure through these times but often grow stronger as a result of them.

The challenge in any relationship is when one party is conflicted and attempts to serve two masters. These conflicted relationships – whether personal, political, social, or business – must change in order to grow or are doomed to languish and underperform if not die completely. On Wall Street, a business that so grossly prioritizes short term profits versus long term customer relationships will not grow. Perhaps for a period of time the excess profits will be addicting and mesmerize management, but over time that model will not work. Bear Stearns is a classic example of this principle. From having worked there for 7 years in the 90s, I evidenced it firsthand. (more…)

Let’s Question the Bank CEOs

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 11th, 2009 9:27 AM |

This morning at 10am, the CEOs of the major money center banks in our country will be in Washington to face Congressional heat. Watch it LIVE on C-Span3.

cspan-bank-logos

These CEOs are easy targets for plenty of reasons. As a precursor to their testimony, I thought it may be helpful to view a 1-minute clip of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, commenting on the proposed stimulus plan, the state of the banking industry, and the concept of nationalizing the banking industry.

If I were questioning these CEOs, I would want to ask the following:

1. To all the CEOs, how do you justify paying $18+ billion in year end bonuses after having taken more than $150+ billion in government funding?

2. Why shouldn’t Citi be formally nationalized right now given the market’s belief that if positions were marked to market properly that the institution would be insolvent?

3. How do you justify the egregious process of raising rates on credit card lines for consumers who are not delinquent?

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An $800 Billion Mistake

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 7th, 2009 4:40 PM |

 

Martin FeldsteinThe American populace knows that the primary architects in the formulation of the Stimulus Plan working its way through Congress are Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. This contingent, along with President Obama, have not been bashful in stating they view the November election results as effectively a mandate to change policies emanating from Washington. Against that backdrop, the initially proposed Stimulus Plan was so loaded with pork that the Republicans and the American population at large slammed it as more a promotion of the Democratic agenda than a true stimulus plan.

I will give President Obama credit for formulating a Panel to Advise Obama on Economy. This panel will be known as the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board. The Board will be headed by former Fed chair Paul Volcker. He will be joined by Jeff Immelt of GE, James Owens of Caterpillar, William Donaldson, former SEC chair, Roger Ferguson Jr. of TIAA-CREF, Richard Trumka of AFL-CIO, Anna Burger of SEIU, and Martin Feldstein, renowned Harvard economist. The group will be guided by Austan Goolsbee, an economic adviser to the White House.

Do you think President Obama and his economic team would listen to Mr. Feldstein or is that a “mere courtesy” having him on the board. Let’s review what Mr. Feldstein said about the Stimulus Plan just last week.

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“Mr. Raines Returns to Washington….”

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2008 1:35 PM |

In the midst of the economic turmoil, the Obama transition, the “rescue” of the domestic auto industry, and the Blagojevich fiasco, the biggest story of all in terms of “$$$” is getting limited coverage in the media, but not here at NQ!!

The core of the global economic meltdown is centered on our domestic housing market and the core of that market is centered on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

It is a shame that the Congressional hearing of the four senior executives (Richard Syron and Leland Brendsel of Freddie Mac and Daniel Mudd and Franklin Raines of Fannie Mae) is not front and center on every media outlet in our country.

It is also a shame that the respective heads of the Congressional Banking Committees are not heavily involved in these hearings. Those individuals, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, along with their colleague, Chuck Schumer should not only be compelled to question these executives, but they themselves should be compelled to be questioned by their colleagues.

Read here as to how “Fannie, Freddie Executives Knew of Risks….” The fact that the executives “generally dodged demands by committee members that they accept blame for those problems” is the height of shamelessness and hypocrisy.

How I wish that we had real statesmen in Washington who had the courage to question these individuals on the following points, which were highlighted here on October 16 in a piece entitled “A Wall St. Insider’s View of Freddie/Fannie.” (more…)






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