Archive for May, 2011
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 6th, 2011 8:57 AM |
The highly anticipated May Unemployment Report was released this morning. How did it look and what does it mean for our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy?
We have some good news and we have some bad news; more importantly than the monthly snapshot, though, let’s step back and take a wide angle view of our overall employment situation. On that note, let’s navigate.
The Wall Street Journal highlights the following: (more…)
Tags: average hourly wages, employment crisis in america, hourly workweek in may unemployment report, household survey employment situation, job report May 6 2011, jobs crisis in America, jobs report May 6 2011, may 2011 employment report, May 2011 employment situation, May 6 2011 employment report, May 6 2011 unemployment report, may 6th 2011 jobs report, may 6th employment report, May Unemployment Report, nfp may 2011 report, non-farm payroll report May 6 2011, purchasing power of consumers, revisions to unemployment report, unemployment crisis in America, Unemployment report May 6 2011, what is the established unemployment survey, what is the household survey, what waqs the unemployment report May 6 2011
Posted in General, Unemployment | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 5th, 2011 12:37 PM |
After having highlighted Rick Davis’ work at Consumer Metrics Institute in my morning commentary, I reached out to him and received the following MUST READ fabulous response.
If you care to truly learn what is going on with the American consumer as we collectively navigate the economic landscape, sit down, take notes, save this review, and share it with your friends. In terms of cutting edge, real time, unbiased economic analysis and commentary it does not get better than this.
THANK YOU, Rick!!
Larry:
We go to great lengths to remove from our data both the inexorable shift of consumers from brick-and-mortar to on-line and the impact of price inflation. (more…)
Tags: American consumer habits, American consumers, American spending habits, are Americans spending, are we still in recession, BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, chances for QE3, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, Department of Commerce, DOC, economic reports on spending and consumption, Eurozone consumers, Gallup polls, Gallup polls on consumer spending and consumer confidence, is the US economy recovering, Larry Doyle, online spending, prospects for QE3, revisions to retail sales by US Census Bureau, Rick Davis, Sense on Cents, shift in consumer behaviors, truth in reporting, update on consumer confidence, what are Americans buying, what is going on with American consumers, when will US economy recovering, will we have a QE3
Posted in General | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 5th, 2011 8:58 AM |
With gasoline prices running upwards of $4.00-4.50/gallon, we should not be surprised that consumers are changing behaviors. How so? Let’s go online. In fact that is exactly what more and more consumers are doing as the Financial Times highlights, High Petrol Prices Fuel Jump in Online Shopping,
Online shopping grew by its fastest rate in nearly four years in the US last month as rising fuel prices prompted Americans to cut trips to malls and buy on the internet instead, according to MasterCard Advisors.
US consumers spent $13.8bn online last month, a 19.2 per cent jump from April last year, according to the SpendingPulse survey, which is based on spending on MasterCard credit cards and estimates of other forms of payment.
The increase is likely to outpace sales growth at bricks-and-mortar stores, due to be released on Thursday. The consensus of economists’ forecasts is that sales at stores open a year or more rose 7.7 per cent in April.
While consumer behavior changes, are we supposed to blindly accept the traditional methods of capturing and measuring retail purchases? Why should we be so archaic in this day and age? Why should we be so trusting of entities which will “tell us what they think we need to hear” and sugarcoat it in the process. (more…)
Tags: BEA 4th quarter 2010 GDP, capturing economic data in real time, chances of QE3, CMI, comparing 2011 economy to 2008, consumer behaviors, consumer internet spending, consumer leading indicators, Consumer Metrics Institute trics institute, consumer reactions to higher gas prices, consumer spending on online shopping, consumers shift to online shopping, Daily Growth Index, DGI, economic impact of higher gas prices, High Petrol Prices Fuel Jump in Online Shopping, how is our economy doing May 2011, how to measure online shopping, impact of higher gasoline prices, leading indicators, Mastercard Advisors, measuring economy vs Great Recession, measuring online spending, online purchases, online shopping, Rick Davis, Spending Pulse Survey, upstream economic activity, what is happening with economy May 2011, why might there be a QE3, will there be a QE3
Posted in General | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2011 11:50 AM |
A month ago I questioned whether there was sufficient evidence of abusive and fraudulent practices in the mortgage business on Wall Street (underwriting, servicing, securitizations, etc) to make a case that the industry as a whole violated the Racketeering Act? I would not expect that our ‘leaders’ in Washington would ever think about making that case; that said, I think there is plenty of reason to believe that a very real case could be made.
What will we likely see? Perhaps a number of individual cases. We witness just such a situation today with news that the Department of Justice yesterday filed a lawsuit against Deutsche Bank for lying about the quality of loans made by a mortgage subsidiary of the German bank. (more…)
Tags: 60 Minutes April 3 2011, 60 Minutes piece on mortgage foreclosure problem, 60 Minutes Scott Pelley, banks forging mortgage documents, Deutsche Bank, did Wall Street violate RICO Act, Federal Housing Administration, FHA, forgery in mortgages, forging mortgage docs, fraud and lying at Mortgage IT, fraud in mortgage business at, fraud in mortgage business at Bank of America a, fraud in mortgage business at Citigroup, fraud in mortgage business at Countrywide, fraud in mortgage business at JP Morgan, fraud in mortgage business at Washington Mutual, fraud in mortgage business at Wells Fargo, fraud in mortgage business on Wall Street, lying about loans, lying about quality of loans, mortgage foreclosure fraud 60 Minutes, mortgage fraud, mortgage fraud 60 Minutes, mortgage fraud on Wall Street, Mortgage IT, mortgage securitization fraud, mortgage securitization process, mortgage servicing fraud, mortgage underwriting fraud, racketeering on Wall Street, RICO Act, robo-signing, violation of racketeering act, violation of RICO Act, Wall Street, Wall Street and RICO Act, Wall street fraud, who authorized mortgage robo-signing, who is Lisa Green, who is Mortgage IT, you never find just one mouse, you never find just one rat, you never find just one rodent
Posted in General, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages | 54 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2011 5:39 AM |
David Rosenberg is a Sense on Cents All-Star. While many do not agree with Rosenberg’s overall assessments of the economy and the markets, I have untold appreciation and respect for his thoughtful and astute analysis. He recently spoke at an investment conference. Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives captured Rosenberg’s thoughts in his piece, My Breakfast with Dave.
For those with even a passing interest in the economy and markets, I strongly recommend even a cursory review of Rosenberg’s remarks as he offers keen insights on a variety of angles and impacts embedded in the ongoing inflation vs deflation debate. What does Dave see for commodities, housing, interest rates? Read on….a wealth of ‘sense on cents’ awaits you. (more…)
Tags: are bonds a buy, Bob Farrell's rule number nine, Breakfast with Dave, COLA adjustments, consumer forecasts for inflation, consumer opinion polls, Consumer price index, CPI, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, GATT, global economy, Gluskin Sheff, household credit, inflation vs deflation, inflation vs deflation debate, Larry Doyle, power of unions, pressure on public unions, public opinion of inflation, Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives, Sense on Cents, Strategic Investment Conference in San Diego, The Conference Board, unit labor costs, velocity of quantitative easing money, what does David Rosenberg think, what is ahead for unions, what is David Rosenberg thinking, what is happening in housing, what will hapen to consumer spending given oil prices, what will happen to housing prices, where are interest rates headed, will inflation be temporary, will inflation increase, will money recirculate, will oil prices increase or decrease, will United States become like Japan
Posted in General | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 3rd, 2011 9:17 AM |
As we inch our way along the economic landscape we witness more comparisons to the economic malaise of The Great Depression. I take no pleasure in writing on these topics and of these comparisons but they are a simple and regrettably a largely unspoken reality.
You do not need to read Sense on Cents to be aware that our wages and incomes are not keeping pace with the cost of living. You do need to read economic blogs, though, because the reality of our income situation and the impact on real consumer spending habits is often left untouched by major media outlets.
Although Ben Bernanke would define the current inflationary and economic trends as transitory, perhaps he should try to explain that to the couple that is struggling to keep their head above water. Where do we see growing evidence of these struggles. Let’s dive inside The 9 Places Where Inflation Is Crushing Us to learn the following startling statistic…, (more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, can you spare a dime, consumer spending, cost of food and fuel, cost of living, cyclical economic issues, cyclical economy, food stamps, food stamps as percentage of income, how long can you tread water, living paycheck to paycheck, Our Shoppers Are Running Out of Money, personal incomes, signs of an economic recovery, structural economic issues, The 9 Places Where Inflation Is Crushing Us, The Great Depression, transitory inflation and economic trends, wages and income, Wal-Mart, Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke, Wal-Mart consumers, Wal-Mart shoppers, writing our nation's economic history
Posted in consumer spending, General | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 2nd, 2011 8:05 AM |
For those who cherish the virtues of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, today is a grand day.
For those directly impacted by the terrorist attacks of 9-11-01, your day has come. Justice has been done. While the pain from the loss of your loved ones can never be eliminated, I hope the news of Osama Bin Laden’s death at the hands of our Navy Seals brings you a semblance of peace. You certainly deserve it.
Prior to commenting on what I believe the risks may be from Bin Laden’s death, let’s direct our thoughts, prayers, and praise to those who truly deserve it. (more…)
Tags: 9-11, 9-11-01, al Qaeda, justice has been done, Larry Doyle, Never forget the families of 9-11, Osama Bin Laden, Osama Bin laden and Adolf Hitler, our allies in the war on terror, our global war on terror, President Barack Obama, President George Bush, raising the flag at the world trade center ruins, risks of Osama Bin Laden's death, Sense on Cents, the death of Osama Bin Laden, the demise of Osama Bin Laden, the mission to kill Osama Bin Laden, the Navy Seals, the war on terror, those who lost their lives on 9-11 s of, what will happen to the dollar after Osama Bin Laden's death
Posted in General | 2 Comments »
RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
Home
