Posts Tagged ‘inflation vs deflation’
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 29th, 2012 12:02 PM |
What does the Federal Reserve know that we don’t?
I mean, why would the Federal Reserve commit to keeping prevailing interest rates at next to zero through the end of 2014 if they were not aware of just how weak our underlying economy truly is?
Bernanke and team know our domestic economy and the global economy at large remain in need of significant and steady oxygen support. (more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Bill Gross Pimco, Bill Gross twitter, Buzz Lightyear, Dan Alpert, Fed policy of zero interest rate policy, financial repression, how is our economy doing January 2012, inflation vs deflation, Pimm Fox Bloomberg Taking Stock, quantitative easing, reflating the economy, what is an investor to do January 2012
Posted in Federal Reserve, General, quantitative easing | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2011 5:39 AM |
David Rosenberg is a Sense on Cents All-Star. While many do not agree with Rosenberg’s overall assessments of the economy and the markets, I have untold appreciation and respect for his thoughtful and astute analysis. He recently spoke at an investment conference. Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives captured Rosenberg’s thoughts in his piece, My Breakfast with Dave.
For those with even a passing interest in the economy and markets, I strongly recommend even a cursory review of Rosenberg’s remarks as he offers keen insights on a variety of angles and impacts embedded in the ongoing inflation vs deflation debate. What does Dave see for commodities, housing, interest rates? Read on….a wealth of ‘sense on cents’ awaits you. (more…)
Tags: are bonds a buy, Bob Farrell's rule number nine, Breakfast with Dave, COLA adjustments, consumer forecasts for inflation, consumer opinion polls, Consumer price index, CPI, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, GATT, global economy, Gluskin Sheff, household credit, inflation vs deflation, inflation vs deflation debate, Larry Doyle, power of unions, pressure on public unions, public opinion of inflation, Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives, Sense on Cents, Strategic Investment Conference in San Diego, The Conference Board, unit labor costs, velocity of quantitative easing money, what does David Rosenberg think, what is ahead for unions, what is David Rosenberg thinking, what is happening in housing, what will hapen to consumer spending given oil prices, what will happen to housing prices, where are interest rates headed, will inflation be temporary, will inflation increase, will money recirculate, will oil prices increase or decrease, will United States become like Japan
Posted in General | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 29th, 2011 8:12 AM |
“Remain calm, all is well!!”
Such would seem to be the message put forth this morning by The Wall Street Journal’s lead headline, Officials Unfazed by Dollar Slide,
In recent days, the nation’s top two economic policy makers—Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner—have publicly expressed their desire for a strong dollar. But there is little indication of a change in policy from either the Fed or Treasury—or in underlying economic conditions—that would alter the currency’s downward course.
When thinking of Bernanke and Geithner, who do you think of first, Abbott and Costello or Laurel and Hardy? I am more in the former camp. “Hey, Abbbbbotttttt!!” (more…)
Tags: "new normal" economy, Abbott and Costello, American consumers and taxpayers are getting screwed, as it was in the beginning, Ben Bernanke, benefits of a weak dollar, capital flows outside of United States, costs of a weak dollar, crush the dollar, debt repudiaton, decline in the value of the dollar, declining greenback, dollar devaluation, economy in 2009, economy in 2010, economy in 2011, For the Fed A Narrowing of Options a, growing inflation, hope is a lousy hedge, how to manage in stagflation, impact of inflation, inflation vs deflation, layoffs, mohamed el-erian, monetizing the debt, municipal layoffs, Officials Unfazed by Dollar Slide, prospects for stagflation, redistribution of pain and costs n of, remain calm all is well, risk of another recession, risks of stagflation, Sense on Cents, stagflation, Tim Geithner
Posted in deflation, General, stagflation, U.S. dollar | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 25th, 2010 8:47 AM |
I thoroughly appreciate those involved in the markets who also have an equal appreciation for history, languages, literature, and the arts and sciences. Rare is the individual who is able to intertwine their passions and fluent enough to share them with others.
I thank a loyal reader of Sense on Cents who brings us just such an individual, that being Ben Davies, CEO of London-based Hinde Capital. Davies spoke the other day to the Committee for Monetary Research and Education in New York. Although his remarks are extensive, I found them to be quite compelling and truly insightful. I commend Ben for his passion and well rounded perspectives. If you consider yourself a student of the markets, interested in our global economy, or merely a lover of topics well written, you will want to read and savor Ben’s thoughts. I am happy to share them here today.
Remarks by Ben Davies,
CEO, Hinde Capital, London
Fall Dinner Meeting
Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Union League Club, New York
Thursday, October 21, 2010 (more…)
Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ben Davies of Hinde Capital, cause and effect, CMRE, Committee for Monetary Research and Education, Donald Rumsfeld, economic predictions, Ed Seykota, ex scientia pecuniae libertas, Federal Reserve, fiat currencies, George Soros or Louis Bacon, gold, Gustav Le Bon, Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle s, Hinde Capital, inflation vs deflation, intervention in the marketplace, investing in gold, known unknowns, Larry Doyle, Law of Mass Action, losing faith in government, mark mahaffey, market distortions, Market Wizards, Michael Steinhardt, Niall Ferguson, Out of Knowledge of Money Comes Freedom, philosopher Karl Popper, reflexivity, self-fulfilling prophecy, Sense on Cents, the outlook remains unusually uncertain, Travie McCoy, union league club in new york, unknown unknowns, variant perception, what makes a great trader, who is Ben Davies
Posted in General | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2010 3:04 PM |
Are you scratching your head wondering about the title of this commentary? Are you wondering if I inadvertently mistyped and should have written CPI for Consumer Price Index? Is it possible that I meant to write PPI for Producer Price Index? Am I somehow opining on a new found capability of the fabulous GPS navigation devices? A resounding no to all of the above.
I have been a big proponent of the work produced by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute. Recall that Rick captures real-time internet related discretionary consumer purchases to measure the overall health and pulse of our economy. As much as some may question the correlation of Rick’s work and the economic reports released by the crowd in Washington, I am a big fan of his work. I strongly encourage people to follow him. Why do I broach this topic?
Do you trust our Washington establishment to provide real truth and display unquestioned integrity in our economic releases? You don’t? Neither do I. Aside from monitoring Rick’s work, are there other broad based, independent vehicles with which we can measure economic data? (more…)
Tags: Consumer Metrics Institute, Financial Times, google price index, Google to Map Inflation Using Web Data, gpi, inflation vs deflation, Rick Davis
Posted in deflation, General | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 7th, 2010 12:39 PM |
What happens when consumer demand drops off a cliff as it has over the last quarter? Shipments of goods and raw materials will likely follow. How are those shipments measured? Let’s check in on trends and developments within the Baltic Dry Index.
The Financial Times highlights the fact that the BDI is submerging precipitously and writes today:
…worrying signals about the global recovery remained. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of dry bulk commodity shipping costs seen by many as a leading indicator for growth, fell for a 29th successive session to its lowest level for more than a year.
Here is a chart of the BDI relative to gold over the last 18 months:
That recent submersion of the BDI is clearly sending a strong signal as to the grinding halt of the global economy.
Can you spell disinflation if not outright deflation? Start with BDI and go from there. In fact, given these developments in the BDI, I would expect that gold may have further downside from current levels.
LD
Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter and Facebook.
Tags: Baltic Dry Index, baltic dry index vs gold, commodities, dry goods, inflation vs deflation, inflation vs disinflation, what is going on with gold
Posted in Baltic Dry Index | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 11th, 2010 8:10 AM |
News this morning that China’s inflation rate has hit a 16-month high is garnering significant attention.
China’s economy is only one-fifth the size of the U.S. economy while China’s population is more than four times that of the United States. In fact, China’s population is approximately one-fifth of the entire world’s population. Clearly, the People’s Republic of China represents a huge growth opportunity in this century.
Bloomberg highlights this inflation news this morning in writing, China Inflation Quickens as Industrial Output Climbs:
China’s inflation reached a 16- month high, industrial output climbed and new loans exceeded forecasts, adding to the case for the government to pare back stimulus measures. (more…)
Tags: China, China inflation, China Inflation Quickens as Industrial Output Climbs, China's population, Chinese inflation, Chinese yuan, Dariusz Kowalczyk, deflation, food inflation in China, gdp in china, global economy, inflation in China, inflation vs deflation, interest rates in China, Japan Yield May Reach December Low on Deflation, People's republic of China, Song Yu Helen Qiao, Wen Jiabao
Posted in China, deflation, General, Inflation | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 11th, 2009 2:44 PM |
What does it mean when virtually every asset class is increasing in value? Is this an indication of a ‘Goldilocks’ market in the context of an economy with widely disparate winners and losers? Can virtually all the different sectors of the market be trading off underlying factors and fundamentals which benefit that asset class? Let’s navigate the different sectors of the market and ask the difficult questions.
Equities
Have companies so improved their balance sheets so as to thrive in the midst of mediocre sales volumes?
Will exports increase so dramatically as to replace weak domestic consumption?
Are valuations sufficiently cheap as to warrant aggressively adding to positions currently?
Is the rally an Uncle Sam induced rebound in the midst of adapting to an entirely new economic dynamic?
Bonds
Why do government interest rates continue to decline in the face of overwhelming supply and a greenback under pressure?
Is the bond market sending warning signals of growing deflationary pressures? If so, can that possibly be good for equities?
How does a bond market continue to rally even as Uncle Sam’s quantitative easing initiative is starting to wind down?
Is the rally in U.S. government debt a warning signal of an economic relapse or proverbial double dip? How do investors reconcile the price action in both bonds and stocks?
The Dollar
The one segment of the market not finding much favor.
How can the dollar decline and the other sectors of the market rally? Isn’t that counterintuitive? A declining dollar is ultimately inflationary. Is that expectation of inflation overwhelmed by the growing deflationary pressures elsewhere within the economy?
Commodities
Has the improvement in oil specifically been a reflection of global economic demand or more a function of a weak dollar?
Is the recent retreat in the Baltic Dry Index forecasting a further pullback in the prices of commodities?
Do emerging market stocks accurately reflect this retracement within the BDI?
Will we have inflationary trends overseas while we experience disinflation or deflation domestically?
Conclusion
The markets do present opportunities for short term traders. As a former trader and currently a long term investor, whenever I have more questions and uncertainties than answers and revelations, I am inclined to reduce risk rather than add to it. Some may say I am going to miss out on further price appreciation for selected assets. I would respond that I am playing a different game.
Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.
LD
Tags: disconnect between economy and markets, inflation vs deflation, is market aligned with economy, price appreciation across all asset classes, questions about the bond market, questions about the equity markets, values of commodities increasing while Baltic Dry Index declines, why are all asset classes increasing in value, why are markets rallying while dollar declines in value
Posted in General, markets | 4 Comments »
RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
Home
