RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
HomeInstitute of International Finance Showcases ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 11th, 2010 7:08 AM |
I first highlighted the quandary known as the ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ in January 2009. I have written a dozen separate commentaries on this economic ‘game’ over the last twenty-two months. Well, while this economic dilemma can be played out between two nations or amongst a wide array, the fact is the stakes of increasing protectionist policies and economic gamesmanship are rising. As aggregate private sector global demand for goods and services continues to decline, global governments are looking to jockey their currency values lower in order to capture a larger share of the international trade pie. While the jawboning in Washington is increasing, rest assured the jockeying overseas is just as fierce. Let’s review the thoughts of a neutral arbiter on this topic. The Institute of International Finance recently weighed in on this issue and wrote,
IIF Calls for Renewed Global Coordination to Resolve Critical Economic Issues. Urgent Actions Needed to Counter Unilateral Moves. (more…)
Phil Trupp Is ‘Ruthless’
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 10th, 2010 12:01 PM |
I can not recall how I first crossed path with Phil Trupp in the spring of 2009. That said, I am glad I did. Phil is a genuine American hero for his dogged pursuit of the truth and his simultaneous elevation of virtues our country needs. I interviewed him twice on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. I look forward to meeting him personally next week at the National Press Club in Washington for the official book launch of his highly acclaimed, Ruthless: How Enraged Investors Reclaimed Their Investments…and Beat Wall Street.
If you are dismayed by the ongoing steep slope of our economic landscape, take heart that there are people like Phil Trupp who are willing to fight for what is right and stand up to regulators, government officials, financial behemoths, and a compliant media. This short 5-minute clip promoting his book exposing all of the failings embedded in the massive scam encompassing auction-rate securities will give you a nice shot of adrenaline and inspiration.
Watch the clip…and then buy the book because the fight is a long way from being over.
Larry Doyle
Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.
I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.
“A Dangerous Game”
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2010 10:57 AM |
Alan Greenspan will certainly not go down in history as the best Federal Reserve chairman. In fact, I think the history books will judge Greenspan very harshly for having overseen the biggest bubbling up within our financial system in eighty years. That said, Greenspan is not a total nitwhit. I believe Greenspan is now working diligently to recover his reputation. How is he doing that? More often than not, I witness Greenspan trying to put forth tmore of the truth rather than the party lines promoted by Wall Street and Washington. What did Greenspan say recently? Let’s navigate a Bloomberg commentary, (more…)
Should We Have Trusted the Chinese to Let the Yuan Appreciate?
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2010 8:58 AM |
To what degree can international trading partners trust each other in the face of an ongoing decline in overall aggregate global demand for goods and services?
More specifically, to what degree can the two major economic superpowers, those being the United States and China, trust each other in the midst of major economic challenges. While everybody can smile for the camera at trade conferences and international economic summits, what happens when those officials go home and implement policy? As with most things in life, we are wise to watch what is done to a far greater extent than what is said. Why do I raise this topic now?
Let’s look in the rear view mirror to mid-June at which point in time our wizards in Washington celebrated as the Chinese announced that they would agree to let their currency, the yuan, appreciate in value. (more…)
How Big Is the Punch Bowl?
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 7th, 2010 1:00 PM |
Party on.
In watching a midday Bloomberg interview, the host Tom Keene asked his guests just how big the punch bowl will be that Fed chair Ben Bernanke puts in front of investors at the next Fed meeting. The punch bowl being the size of the highly anticipated second round of Federal Reserve quantitative easing that is driving interest rates lower and asset prices higher.
While this punch bowl may be smaller than the initial party launched in 2009, the fact is expectations are that this punch bowl will run anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion in size. That is a lot of liquidity to keep the Wall Street party going. However, that figure is also a very strong indication as to the enormity of the underlying problems embedded in our economic foundation. (more…)
Beggar Thy Neighbor
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2010 12:17 PM |
So much has happened along our economic landscape over the last two to three years that it is hard to weigh the magnitude and depth of many of the developments. That said, the simple fact is the tectonic plates underlying our global economy have shifted massively as a result of the enormous financial earthquake of 2008. While global governments and central banks have performed varying degrees of triage to save states, nations, and regions, the movements of the plates are continuing along under the surface. To that end, what is the economic reality now bubbling above the surface given the shift in our tectonic plates below? Let’s navigate and review the reality known as Beggar Thy Neighbor, defined by our friendly Investing primer as,
An international trading policy that utilizes currency devaluations and protective barriers to alleviate a nation’s economic difficulties at the expense of other countries. While the policy may help repair an economic hardship in the nation, it will harm the country’s trading partners, worsening its economic status. (more…)
“The Crisis Is About Loss Redistribution”
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 4th, 2010 6:26 AM |
While many on Wall Street and Washington may care to proselytize about the impact of different programs implemented during our economic crisis, one individual provided a condensed but brutally honest assessment of the various initiatives implemented to ‘save’ our economy. Who is this purveyor of wisdom or ‘sense on cents’ savant? None other than Edward Kane. Who is that? Let’s navigate as The New York Times’ Gretchen Morgenson once again distinguished herself in writing, Count on Sequels to TARP:
“THE crisis is about loss redistribution,” said Edward J. Kane, professor of finance at Boston College and an authority on regulatory failures. “In a crisis, these institutions have much more power with the government than taxpayers do and they will make it seem in the interests of responsible officials to rescue them, whether that’s Congress, the Treasury or the Federal Reserve. But the notion that you can always throw these losses on the taxpayer in the long run is very, very dangerous. There will come a time when the taxpayers will come close to revolt.”
Redistributing stress points does not eliminate them. Each and every day is thus one day closer to that reality for American taxpayers. We would be foolhardy to think that reality is not a very real possibility.
Larry Doyle
Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.
I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.
Inside Wall Street View of Economy and Market: ‘Pyrrhic Victory’
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 1st, 2010 4:31 AM |
Thanks to the friend of Sense on Cents who shared this commentary on our economy and markets. This commentary for clients emanated from a major Wall Street bank. I believe the writer’s sentiments are consistent with mine in terms of my assessment of a ‘walking pneumonia’ economy. The writer’s comparison of our economic recovery to a Pyrrhic victory is very interesting. I appreciate his utilization of another ancient Greek lesson as we try to recover, move forward, and live to fight another day.
>More work to do for monetary policymakers.
>Global economic activity unlikely to relapse, but expect growth to stay lackluster.
>Markets more likely to climb than collapse under the wall of worry.
The military victories of ancient Greek King Pyrrhus over the Romans during the third century B.C. were notable for the devastating losses that his armies suffered in the process. Indeed it is said that after his triumph at Asculum, Pyrrhus remarked to his officers that “another such victory and we are undone”. In many ways, last week’s formal pronouncement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the U.S. recession ended in June 2009 had the distinct feel of a Pyrrhic victory, underlined by the sickly figures released on housing demand. (more…)
