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Archive for October, 2009

What Did Bank of America Know and When Did They Know It?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 13th, 2009 8:19 AM |

Are the powers that be at Bank of America wilting under political pressure to release the details of its merger with Merrill Lynch? In fact they are and in the process, the executives at Bank of America are agreeing to waive attorney-client privilege. What are the critical points which New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the SEC, those in Congress, and especially Bank of America shareholders want to learn?

1. What did Bank of America know about the ongoing deteriorating financial position at Merrill Lynch?

2. What did Bank of America executives share with their board members about the billions in bonuses to be paid at Merrill?

3. Did Ken Lewis overplay his hand? Please reference my commentary from a few weeks ago, “Documents Indicate Ken Lewis Utilized the MAC To Shake Down Bernanke and Paulson.”

The Wall Street Journal summarizes these topics this morning in writing, BofA to Hand Over Documents Related To Its Merrill Deal:

Mr. Cuomo’s investigators, as well as Judge Rakoff, have said a fuller accounting of the events surrounding the deal is a prerequisite to any resolution of the probes. BofA is hoping releasing the privileged documents will satisfy those demands, according to people familiar with the matter.

BofA’s move will likely reveal exactly what advice was provided by outside firms, according to people familiar with the matter. Those firms include Wachtell, Lipton Rosen & Katz, which represented BofA during the Merrill transaction and is a long and trusted adviser to the bank, as well as Merrill’s counsel, Shearman & Sterling LLP.

It may also show conversations with ex-general counsels Timothy Mayopoulos and Brian Moynihan. Bank of America recently hired law firm Paul Weiss Rifkind Wharton & Garrison LLP to join Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP in representing the bank in the various federal and state investigations surrounding the Merrill acquisition.

“This is going to get to the down-and-dirty question of what counsel did say and did not say, what counsel meant and did not mean,” said James Cox, a law professor at Duke University.

BofA

(Associated Press) In a photo from Sept. 2008, Merrill Lynch Chairman and CEO John Thain, left, and Bank of America Chairman and CEO Ken Lewis shake hands following a news conference.

Down and dirty? I love it. Get the extra large popcorn. This should be good.

LD

What Will Happen to the American Dream?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2009 2:41 PM |

The pursuit of a better life and greater opportunities have driven successive generations since the founding of our nation. Will that dream live on? Will future generations have a chance to live a better life than the current generation or recent generations?

Is the mere talk of this pursuit of the American dream mere poppycock? Do we think we can regain our economic stature and, once again, experience true economic prosperity merely because we want to have it happen?

Many feel that success is a function of a few basic principles combined with a little bit of luck. Is it truly luck, as some may maintain? No, I think not. I have always thought of luck as nothing more than where ‘preparation meets opportunity.’

In writing on this topic, I am not so hardened to think that families can easily or fluidly pursue opportunities which would entail picking up roots and moving. That said, demographic shifts will certainly be an ongoing theme as our economy and our country adapt to the new dynamics within the ‘Uncle Sam’ economy.

While we could debate at length the merits, or lack thereof, of bank bailouts and government support across a wide array of businesses and industries, I believe a great and unmentioned cost of a number of government programs is the masking of significant structural problems embedded in both the financial and moral balance sheets of individuals, families, corporations, and the government itself. (more…)

Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Managers ‘Facing the Music’

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2009 12:29 PM |

Is it possible for an industry to accrue trillions in losses and nary an individual forced to truly ‘face the music?’ That reality, perhaps more than any other, is the greatest indictment of the incestuous relationship between Wall Street and its regulatory oversight in the form of the SEC and FINRA.

The music is about to start playing as Bear Stearns hedge fund managers Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin enter court this week for the start of their trial in which they are accused of misrepresenting the health of their two hedge funds at Bear Stearns.

This trial will attract a tremendous amount of attention. Why? The very fact that it is truly the first legitimate legal proceeding linked to the meltdown of our financial crisis. The trial will highlight incriminating statements and e-mails written by both Cioffi and Tannin. Additionally, we should expect the prosecution to present material which highlights the fact that Cioffi and Tannin seemed to intentionally misrepresent the very nature of their investment holdings.

The Wall Street Journal provides further color on this case in writing, A Case Pitting Spin Against Fraud:

A criminal trial involving two former Bear Stearns executives could help answer a key question stemming from the financial crisis: How far can Wall Street firms go to put a positive spin on bad news?

Ralph Cioffi, a former money manager at Bear Stearns, is escorted by officials to a waiting vehicle in Manhattan on June 19, 2008.

(Ralph Cioffi, a former money manager at Bear Stearns, is escorted by officials to a waiting vehicle in Manhattan on June 19, 2008.)

The two executives, Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, will fight securities-fraud charges in a widely anticipated trial beginning on Tuesday in a Brooklyn, N.Y., federal court. The money managers unsuccessfully scrambled to keep two mortgage-heavy Bear Stearns hedge funds afloat in 2007 amid sinking mortgage-market prices, the first of several blows that eventually felled Bear Stearns and marked the start of the credit crisis. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. bought the firm in a March 2008 fire sale.

Prosecutors accused Messrs. Cioffi and Tannin of misleading investors about the health of the two funds, testing the degree to which Wall Street should disclose bad news to investors. (more…)

Housing’s Catch-22

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2009 9:28 AM |

What is the optimal policy to deal with our ongoing housing crisis? Should Uncle Sam  continue to throw more money at mortgage modifications? Should banks be compelled to implement a principal reduction program? Should Uncle Sam step in and subsidize the principal writedown involved in a principal reduction program? Would that be the mother of all socialized housing programs? Let’s navigate and address these topics knowing full well that none of these questions have any easy answers.

I witness further evidence again this morning of a continued increase in home foreclosures amidst the prime mortgage space. The Wall Street Journal highlights this ongoing development in writing, Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market’s Top Tiers:

The report shows that foreclosures, after declining earlier this year, began to accelerate in the late spring and that more expensive homes have more recently accounted for a growing share of all foreclosures. “The slope of that curve in recent months is much sharper than it was recently,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. Rising foreclosures among more-expensive homes could create added pressure for a housing market that has shown signs of stabilizing in recent months as sales of lower-priced homes pick up.

[Moving Up chart]

Foreclosures are rising in more expensive markets as home values in those areas fall, leaving more homeowners with mortgages that exceed the value of their properties. Prime loans accounted for 58% of foreclosure starts in the second quarter, up from 44% last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Subprime mortgages accounted for one-third of foreclosure starts, down from one-half last year.

The prime category includes so-called exotic mortgages that were increasingly used to buy more expensive homes, including interest-only mortgages that allowed borrowers to defer principal payments during an initial period. Borrowers often aren’t able to refinance out of these products because the drop in home values has left them with little equity in their homes.

Default rates are particularly high and expected to rise on option adjustable-rate mortgages, which allow borrowers to make minimum payments that may not cover the interest due. Monthly payments can increase to sharply higher levels after five years or when the outstanding balance reaches a certain level. A study by Fitch Ratings found that 46% of option ARMs were 30 days past due last month, even though just 12% of such loans have reset to higher monthly payments.

Zillow estimated that nearly one in four homes with mortgages was worth less than the value of the property at the end of June. Mr. Humphries said he didn’t expect to see foreclosure volumes level off until later in 2010. (LD’s emphasis)

With the waves of foreclosures not abating, Uncle Sam’s plans to merely modify mortgages is proving largely insignificant in supporting the overall housing market. Homeowners are clearly showing a strong inclination to default on their mortgages when they are ‘underwater.’ Thus, how does Uncle Sam help people get ‘above water?’ Compel banks to reduce the principal balance of the mortgage. Will they do it? Not quickly, as a principal reduction would imply an immediate hit to the banks’ capital. (more…)

No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Goes “Inside the Black Box” with Rishi Narang

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 10th, 2009 5:53 PM |

UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.

****************

Please join me this Sunday evening, October 11th, from 8-9pm for my weekly radio program Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle on No Quarter Radio. This show is an extension of my regular work at Sense on Cents where I attempt to provide insightful analysis and perspectives on the markets, economy, Wall Street, Washington, and global finance all in hopes of helping you more effectively ‘navigate the economic landscape.’

This week we will go “Inside the Black Box” with Rishi Narang, author of this insightful book which provides ‘the simple truth about quantitative trading.’ In addition to having recently released this fabulous  book, Rishi is the founding principal of Telesis Capital LLC, which invests in quantitative trading strategies. From 2002 to 2005, Rishi was a managing director and co-portfolio manager at Santa Barbara Alpha Strategies. Rishi was president and vice-chairman of Tradeworx, Inc., a quantitative hedge fund manager from 1999-2002. He has been involved in the hedge fund industry with a focus on quantitative trading strategies since 1996. He graduated from the University of California at Berkeley with a BA in economics.

We will not only bring you ‘inside the black box’ but we will make sure you get out of the box, as well. In going in and out of the black box, we will address how and why this business has grown by leaps and bounds on Wall Street. What are the secrets of successful quant trading? What are the pitfalls? What caused some of the disasters in quant trading? How have quants factored into the recent credit crisis? What is the future of this business?

Your host, as a former trader although certainly not a quant, looks forward to having a riveting discussion with Rishi Narang who has provided real transparency into this generally perceived dark corner of the market. Please join me this Sunday evening from 8-9pm EDT as we take this episode of No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle “Inside the Black Box.”

As a reminder, all of my Sunday evening shows are taped and archived here at Sense on Cents, along with podcasts on iTunes.

Thanks for your support.

LD

October 10, 2009: Month to Date Market Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 10th, 2009 10:12 AM |

We are reaching a point in our new “Uncle Sam” economy where rhetoric from Wall Street, Washington, and global financial centers seems to be having greater impact than true market and economic fundamentals. Why? Our financial and political ‘wizards’ are working overtime to reconnect the great ‘disconnect’ between Wall Street and Main Street. While we receive glimmers of hope in certain economic statistics, the dark clouds in employment and housing remain daunting.

Are the ‘Washington wizards’ (Bernanke, Geithner, Summers) providing hints of support for our greenback while truly hoping for a manageable decline? I believe they are, and I believe this financial engineering is a very dangerous game.

I thank you for reading my work, and now let’s collectively ‘navigate the economic landscape,’ the mission of Sense on Cents.

ECONOMIC DATA

Non-manufacturing Institute of Supply Management: this report rose above 50 (an indication of growth) with a positive development in new orders (this is clearly good), but with no signs of improvement in employment and pricing power by manufacturers.

Redbook: indications of slight improvement in same store sales although next week’s Retail Sales report will likely look exceptionally weak as it incorporates an end to the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program. Overall signs point to what is expected to be a weak holiday retail season.

Jobless Claims: overall claims declined, which presents a sign of stability within employment. That said, it is hard to be optimistic on the employment front on the heels of the employment report released on October 2nd (embedded within the Equity section of this commentary).

Trade Deficit: this deficit surprisingly narrowed, with a slight increase in exports combined with a slight decrease in imports. All other things being equal, this report would be positive for our dollar but the noise surrounding our currency is overwhelming the focus within this one month reading.

I would typically lead my review with focus on the equity and bond markets, but those sectors are actually following developments in the currency and commodity markets so let’s shift our focus accordingly.

How did the markets handle the Fed-speak, the data, and technical flows? Let’s continue navigating. The figures I provide are the weekly close and the month-to-date returns on a percentage basis.

U.S. DOLLAR

$/Yen: 89.78 vs. 89.68
Euro/Dollar: 1.4709 vs. 1.4635
U.S. Dollar Index: 76.35 vs. 76.72

Commentary: the overall U.S. Dollar Index has declined by approximately .5% this month, but the volatility and focus on movements in this space have been tremendous. Precipitated by an increase in rates by the Australian Central Bank midweek, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged below 76 which represents multi-year lows. The dollar weakness led to a move higher in global equities as traders, investors, and speculators were emboldened to enter into more ‘positive dollar carry trades.’

While I think Washington is not disappointed in a relatively weak dollar, although they should be (“Dollar Devaluation Is a Dangerous Game”), other countries are not overly keen about further dollar weakness. Why? A weak dollar puts those countries in a marginally less competitive position in international trade. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet voiced his concerns on this topic. Rest assured, the Asian nations feel the same way although they are careful in their comments. Adding further fuel to dollar weakness was speculation that the trading of oil and a basket of other commodities, which are currently transacted in U.S. dollars, would shift trading away from being dollar-based. On that note, let’s review the action in commodities.

COMMODITIES

Oil: $72.29/barrel vs. $70.39
Gold: $1050.1/oz. vs. $1008.2   !!!! THE BIG WINNER !!!!
DJ-UBS Commodity Index: 129.177 vs. 127.683

Commentary: I view this segment of the market to be the STRONGEST indicator of the global economic pulse. Additionally, the price action in commodities is likely a strong indication of the ‘positive carry’ trade put on by hedge funds and other traders.

The overall commodity index has moved higher by approximately 1.2% on the month, but the movements within specific commodities is gaining the real focus. Gold specifically has soared by over 4% this month. Why? Market speculation about a potential further slide in the greenback would be inflationary.  Oil and other commodities also benefited from the story I referenced above. The conundrum I find in this space revolves around overall levels of international trade. Are these commodities moving higher truly because of an increase in demand or merely because of speculative investing and trading? Where do we go to get a pulse on that? The Baltic Dry Index. How is our friendly indicator of global shipping activity doing?

The  Baltic Dry Index continues to move marginally lower. Can global equities in general and commodities specifically increase in value if the major indicator of global trade, that being the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), is in a downtrend? I think not for the long haul, but for a period of time a cheap funding vehicle, that is the U.S. dollar, can override market fundamentals.

I read these commodity tea leaves as sign of inflationary expectations in these ‘inputs’ while we encounter deflationary pressures in wages and real estate. What a world.

EQUITIES

DJIA: 9865, +1.6%
Nasdaq: 2139, +0.8%
S&P 500: 1071, +1.3%
MSCI Emerging Mkt Index: 946, +3.6%
DJ Global ex U.S.: 197.6, +1.5%

Commentary: equities regained momentum after last week’s selloff. Recall how just one week ago, we faced a remarkably weak and disappointing Unemployment Report which culminated a week in which equities had given up approximately 2%. Well, we not only recaptured that decline but rallied further by another 1-2%. This past week accounted for the strongest advancement in equities since early July. Are we poised for a breakout past 10,000 on the Dow? Well, we need to remain focused on what is driving the market . . . and that is the weak greenback.

Indications of economic strength in Australia compelled the Australian Central Bank to raise rates which drove the Aussie higher and the dollar to new lows. In the process, the ‘dollar carry trade’ gained momentum propelling global equities higher.

The initial earnings reports released continue to show no real signs of improvement in top line revenue generated by increased sales while the bottom lines have improved given ongoing cost cutting progams. If a company cuts ALL its costs, will its stock still go higher? Rising stock values ultimately need to be driven by ‘growth.’

BONDS/INTEREST RATES

2yr Treasury: .97%, an increase of 2 basis points or .01% 
10yr Treasury: 3.39%,
an increase of 9 basis points

The yield curve steepened (longer maturities underperformed shorter maturities) under the weight of another Treasury refunding (3yr, 10yr, and 30yr). The 30yr auction on Thursday was disappointing which precipitated the selloff. The bond market has been trading in sync with equities for the last few months. That price action is an anomaly as typically bonds will trade in an inverse relationship with equities. Comments by Bernanke in the latter part of the week about an eventual and timely increase in rates by the Fed did take the wind out of the bond market’s sails.

COY (High Yield ETF): 6.64, +3.8%
FMY (Mortgage ETF): 17.85, +0.3%
ITE (Government ETF): 57.77, -0.3%
NXR (Municipal ETF): 14.46, +0.1%

Commentary: while interest rates did move marginally higher over the week, overall they remain at remarkably low levels. The high-yield market remains on fire as that sector is benefiting from a lot of hedge funds allocating capital via the ‘dollar carry trade’ referenced previously.

Summary/Conclusion

The game continues. The disconnect between the overall domestic economy and the price action in the markets presents what one noted investor described as ‘the greatest experiment’ in modern finance. To the extent that people are putting money to work, I would focus on buying quality and utilizing ‘dollar cost averaging’ techniques.

Thanks for your support. If you like what you see here, please subscribe via e-mail, Twitter, Facebook, or an RSS feed.

Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.

Have a great day and weekend.

LD

What Are Credit Suisse Clients Doing and Saying?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 9th, 2009 11:30 AM |

High five to a good friend for sharing with us tremendous insights just released by Credit Suisse. While individuals can and should develop opinions on the economy and markets, the global flow of capital from investors (obviously central banks now count as investors given massive quantitative easing programs) will determine overall market levels. Let’s navigate and assess how Credit Suisse’s client base has positioned themselves and decipher what it all means.

Credit Suisse research analysts report the following:

We are close to finishing our marketing trip in the US and Continental Europe—and take a look at the main issues our clients are focused on at the moment.

1. Caveated bullishness: Hedge funds appear optimistic (focusing on Q3 earnings as the next catalyst). Long-only funds seem cautious, while retail investors are buying bonds rather than equity. We feel there is enough scepticism to leave us bullish.

LD’s comment: CS means bullish on equities.

2. Many asset allocators still prefer credit (bonds) to equity, so there is switching potential.

LD’s comment: Asset allocators are money managers, investment advisors, et al. This comment translates into the fact that money which has been allocated to the bond market could move into equities causing a move higher in equities and a move down in bonds.

3. Investors’ main dilemma: Why have margins stabilised at such high levels? Most feel the reason is cyclical (leaving limited upside in earnings), but we suspect it could be more structural.

LD’s comment: Margins refer to corporate profit margins. The fact that CS believes that profit margins are being supported by structural developments in companies and the economy is a VERY positive assessment as it indicates a change in the foundation of the global economy which would drive equities higher.

4. Economy: Very few clients are positioning themselves aggressively on a macro view. There is little confidence on final demand given the level of excess household leverage. A third of investors are bearish on US housing (too many, in our view). Clients still see inflation, not deflation, as the main risk.

LD’s comment: investors would appear to be more cautious than optimistic with concerns that there is excess liquidity from central banks which will ultimately lead to inflation.

5. Consensus catalyst for next leg down is severe dollar weakness (LD’s highlight), leading to a US bond funding crisis or government tightening fiscal policy too early. Two areas of worrying consensus: 99% of investors appear to be dollar bears and nearly everyone believes the Fed will be very slow to raise rates.

LD’s comment: if 99% of investors are dollar bears and are positioning themselves that way in one way, shape or form, then the dollar will find support. Why? When too many people are on one side of a boat, that boat tips. If the dollar does rally, then many ‘dollar carry trades’ may enter the ‘pain chamber’ and risk-based assets would likely sell off.

6. Regions: Strong consensus to be long of emerging markets (NJA is felt to have large upside potential if US retail sales recover and the dollar remains weak). Clients are more positive on Europe than they have been for the past two years. Investors have quickly capitulated on a tactically positive call on Japan. Renewed focus on domestic plays in dollar-linked countries (especially the Middle East).

LD’s comment: NJA is non-Japan Asia

7. Sectors: We believe most clients have a bar-bell type strategy. Consensus longs are tech and commodities/gold. We found far too many oil bulls for our liking. There is a huge variance of views on banks. Sectors where there is still doubt: life companies (too opaque), media, telecoms, steel and pharma. There were very few questions on defensives.

8. Style: Clients are looking for quality growth, shifting away from the credit-related plays.

Overall, I view this report as decidedly constructive on the economy and markets, albeit with plenty of reasons for caution.

Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.

LD

Elizabeth Warren Highlights Washington’s Losing Battle on Housing

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 9th, 2009 9:21 AM |

Who in Washington will give you a straight answer? Elizabeth Warren.

Who is Elizabeth Warren? Her Wikipedia bio reads:

Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren (born 1949) is the Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, where she teaches contract law, bankruptcy, and commercial law. In the wake of the 2008-9 financial crisis, she has also become the chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel created to oversee the U.S. banking bailout, formally known as the Troubled Assets Relief Program. In 2007, she first developed the idea to create a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which President Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd, and Barney Frank are now advocating as part of their financial regulatory reform proposals.

In May 2009, Warren was named one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in the World.

Ms. Warren consistently takes no prisoners or provides no pandering in making honest assessments of the interaction between Washington and Wall Street. She has called the banks on the carpet. She has called Secretary Geithner on the carpet. She has called Congress on the carpet. Why? A general lack of honesty, integrity, and transparency in dealing with the American public.

When she speaks, I listen.

What did she have to say this morning? In commenting on a recently released report on the effectiveness of government programs to support housing, Warren questioned the scalability and the permanence of the impact of the TARP funding. Bloomberg provides further color in writing TARP Oversight Group Says Treasury Mortgage Plan Not Effective. The report highlights:

“Rising unemployment, generally flat or even falling home prices and impending mortgage-rate resets threaten to cast millions more out of their homes,” the report said. “The panel urges Treasury to reconsider the scope, scalability and permanence of the programs designed to minimize the economic impact of foreclosures and consider whether new programs or program enhancements could be adopted.”

New programs or program enhancements? Yesterday I opined “Washington Needs a New Housing Model” and wrote:

While the administration swims upstream on this issue, bank policy of tight credit and restrictive lending only further exacerbates the housing market. Make no mistake, though, banks are taking that approach to tight credit at the behest of regulators who know the level of losses in the banking system and are trying to preserve the industry as a whole.

I like a rallying equity market as much as anybody, but I wouldn’t spend any paper gains just yet. Why? The new housing model is displaying that:

“As defaults become more common, the social stigma attached with defaulting will likely be reduced, especially if there continues to be few repercussions for people who walk away from their loans,” concluded Sapienza.  “This has an adverse effect on homeowners who do pay their mortgages, and the after-effects of more defaults and more price collapse could be economic catastrophe.”

This model needs some quick-dry crazy glue, which could only be applied in the form of a serious principal reduction program. Banks would take immediate and massive hits to capital which they clearly won’t accept.

So how can we generate some support for housing?

Aside from a principal reduction program, the penalty for those who would strategically default on their mortgage needs to be far more onerous.

The principal reduction would negatively impact bank earnings. Too bad. The banks are currently feeding at the taxpayer trough and would not be here without the bailouts. The individuals who are capable of making their payments need to accept the moral responsibility that is embedded in a contract.

Given the massive violation of moral hazards and breaking of contracts by Uncle Sam, that old man does not have a lot of credibility on that front.

What do we really learn here? Ultimately, the market is the market and efforts to manipulate or support a falling market will only be temporary. The market needs to find the clearing level where private money will purchase properties. That private money will wait while Uncle Sam continues to try to prop the market.

In the meantime, do not expect any meaningful support for housing.

LD

Mary Schapiro Has Some ‘Splainin To Do…

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2009 4:03 PM |

Mary Schapiro

Big money makes for a very strange bedfellow. Is FINRA sleeping well these days? A pending lawsuit against FINRA would like to pull back the covers and check to see if the money in the FINRA mattress was allocated appropriately. Let’s enter the sitting room and take a peek into this corner of the FINRA household.

In the process of consolidating the NASD with NYSE Regulation to form FINRA, the NASD allocated capital proceeds to its member firms. This capital was generated via the initial public offering of the Nasdaq. Did the NASD, now known as FINRA, significantly underallocate capital proceeds to its member firms? This alleged underallocation, known as being ‘picked off’ on Wall Street, is the basis for a lawsuit brought by two FINRA member firms, Benchmark and Standard Investment Chartered.

Why am I concerned about the arcane inner workings and legal issues of a Wall Street self-regulatory organization? For the very same reason that I’m concerned about that regulator’s internal investment portfolio activities. Transparency or the lack thereof and the resulting confidence or lack thereof that the American public has in our entire financial regulatory system. Those goals strike me as worthy especially in light of the systemic risks embedded in an array of organizations which this regulator was charged to oversee. Yes, a large amount of exposure and transparency is badly needed at this point in our economic history. Against this backdrop, let’s navigate and see what we can learn about this lawsuit.

The law firms of Cuneo, Gilbert & LaDuca along with Greenfield and Goodman are representing the plaintiffs. From the former’s website we learn:

Along with our co-counsel Greenfield & Goodman, LLC, we currently represent members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) (formerly known as the National Association of Securities Dealers or “NASD”) in United States District Court and Court of Appeals litigation.  The complaints, which are based on state law, allege that defendants, among other things, obtained the NASD members’ vote in support of the consolidation of NASD and NYSE Regulation through an inaccurate and deceptive proxy statement and solicitation process. (LD’s highlight) At issue in the suit is whether NASD could have distributed to its members a larger share of the approximately $1.5 billion of NASD members’ equity.  As members will recall, NASD repeatedly asserted that the IRS imposed a $35,000 “hard cap” on what the NASD could pay its members.

Wow. With a $1.5 billion pie, we are talking big money. In light of that, a charge labeled as ‘inaccurate and deceptive proxy statement and solicitation process’ is aggressive especially for an industry’s regulatory organization. Whatever happened to embracing accuracy and clarity? Let’s continue.

Some documents from the litigation that shed light on the truth of these statements are now public.  However, FINRA has insisted that the key fact – the amount the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) told NASD it could distribute – remain secret, that is, under seal.

Secret? Under seal? Those terms aren’t synonymous with transparent. I thought under the ‘change’ being promoted by the Obama administration transparency would be embraced. What this looks like is more ‘business as usual’ on Wall Street. Navigating further we learn,

>The IRS did not limit the payment to member firms to $35,000 as NASD and its officials insisted.

>The IRS did not issue a formal ruling on the payment to members until March 13, 2007 – approximately two months after the member vote on the bylaws occurred.November 21, 2006.

>NASD Board Minutes demonstrate that the NASD Board discussed the $35,000 limit stating, “regardless of the amount agreed upon, it was paramount that the figure not be subject to negotiation.”

At this juncture, if I could be so bold as to steal a line from Ricky Ricardo in engaging Lucy, I would say to Mary Schapiro who headed FINRA, “you got some ‘splainin to do.”

For any legal beagles and overachievers in the audience, I am happy to submit the following legal documents pertaining to this case:

Communications between NASD and the IRS

NASD Board Materials

Proxy Materials

Internal NASD Emails

Internal NASD Memoranda

Communications Between NASD and NYSE

Rest assured, I will be monitoring developments in this case closely.

LD

Washington Needs a New Housing Model

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2009 12:04 PM |

Traders, strategists, analysts, economists, and politicians will always review models of past behaviors in an attempt to forecast future developments. In the process, the models are only as robust as the inputs. Many of the aforementioned individuals will become overly dependent on models. The risk in that process is that the models ‘work until they don’t work.’ As a result, programs, policies, and procedures are implemented that perhaps exacerbate rather than amend a situation. I believe this scenario is playing out in our housing market.

The breakdown in Washington’s housing model revolves around the newly developed phenomena known as “strategic mortgage defaults.” I highlighted this topic a few weeks back in writing, “Strategic Mortgage Defaults Have Major Implications for Markets and Economy.” We see more evidence of this new extension on our housing model in a report released by Reuters, The Flood of Foreclosures Shows No Sign of Ebbing:

The Center for Responsible Lending says foreclosures are on track to wipe out $502 billion in property values this year.

Investor's Real Estate Guide

That spillover effect from foreclosures is one reason why Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com says nationwide home prices won’t regain the peak levels they reached in 2006 until 2020.

In states hardest-hit by the housing bust, like Florida and California, the rebound will take until 2030, Chen predicted.

“The default rates, the delinquency rates, are still rising,” Chen told Reuters. “Rising joblessness combined with a large degree of negative equity are going to cause foreclosures to increase,” she added.

Anyone doubting that the recovery in U.S. real estate prices will be long and hard should take a look at Japan, Chen said.

Prices there are still off about 50 percent from the peak they hit 15 years ago.

(more…)






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