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HomeFed Governor Fisher: “Break Up TBTF Banks”
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 17th, 2013 11:54 AM |
Three days ago I wrote how strongly I believe that the Wall Street landscape needs to be restructured. How so? I made my case in defining Wall Street as an oligopoly and Why Should the Banks Be Broken Up?
I concluded my commentary by highlighting that Dallas Federal Reserve governor Richard Fisher would be addressing this same topic on Wednesday evening. What did the good governor have to say? (more…)
Is JP Morgan Fronting for the Fed?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2012 9:09 AM |
UPDATE: This commentary written in mid-April 2012 should be read in conjunction with the following:
May 14th Review: Bloomberg Bombshells re: JP Morgan $2B Loss
May 12th review: $2B Loss? What Went Wrong at JP Morgan?
May 11th review: JP Morgan Whale: “Thar She Blows”
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Reports are swirling around Wall Street and the global markets about massive credit bets on the books at JP Morgan.
A JP Morgan trader in London, Bruno Iksil, has been nicknamed ‘the whale’. Iksil reports ultimately to Achilles Macris, JPM’s chief investment officer in Europe and Asia. Bloomberg had an interesting discussion this morning about Iksil, Macris, JPM, and these positions. Let’s watch and learn… (more…)
New Banking Rules Have Not Hurt Jamie Dimon
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 8th, 2011 12:20 PM |
When do you know that somebody is tone deaf?
Those with any measure of ‘sense on cents’ know when an individual is tone deaf. How so?
When said individual racks up compensation in the multiple tens of millions of dollars from an industry that was bailed out by taxpayer funds and then complains about changes in regulatory oversight, you know that individual is tone deaf.
To whom do I refer? Welcome to the world of JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. (more…)
Goldman’s Perfect Quarter Indicates Game is Fixed
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2010 10:12 AM |
Those involved in fixing the scores of athletic events will intentionally lose every once in a while to give the appearance that the games themselves are on the up and up. For those betting on athletic contests, beating the point spread each and every time would be a strong indication that the games are fixed. Similarly, casinos are happy when players win so that other players will enter the game. If the house always wins, sooner or later fewer and fewer players will enter that casino.
The crowd at Goldman Sachs ,along with their cronies in Washington, may want to heed these lessons. Why do I write this? (more…)
Price Fixing on Wall Street?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 9th, 2010 11:16 AM |
Lessened competition in any industry will lead to wider margins and greater revenue and profit opportunities.
Wall Street circa 2010 is certainly a dramatically changed landscape with significantly lessened competition. Is Wall Street today an honest display of capitalism in which ‘to the victors go the spoils’? Or is Wall Street an oligopoly which is using its increased power and leverage to control, if not outright fix, prices for products and services?
In the midst of all the other issues Washington is facing, I think there is very little focus on this topic, but we overlook it at our peril. Why? Price fixing, or iterations thereof, is nothing more than a vehicle to transfer wealth from consumers to providers. (more…)
Wall Street’s Oligopoly Flexes Its Muscle
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2010 12:51 PM |
Pricing power is everything.
What businessman wouldn’t like greater control and influence over the pricing of his goods and services? How are prices determined? In a capitalist system, prices are a function of the competitive forces of supply and demand. What happens when competition dwindles? Pricing power for the suppliers increases. How does competition dwindle? When barriers to entry are so high, or competitors go out of business. This economic reality is also known as an oligopoly and it defines the current state of our financial industry known as Wall Street.
Is Wall Street taking advantage of the lessened competition and flexing its muscle to drive revenue? Is the Pope Catholic? (more…)
More Bank Fraud
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 16th, 2010 12:53 PM |
The bailing out of our largest financial institutions was a violation of moral hazard of the greatest magnitude. With that violation well in place, America is now facing violations of other moral hazards. What do I mean?
The mortgage modification program is a joke because the banks holding the mortgages have no incentive in modifying them. Why? Because, to a very large extent, if the bank modifies the primary mortgage then it has to write off the value of a second lien, if in fact a second lien exists. Given the amount of equity borrowers took out of their homes, there are a lot of second liens outstanding.
How are the banks handling these second liens? Violating a moral hazard and committing fraud in the process. A report from CNBC, Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud, highlights this reality. The report outlines: (more…)
Goldman Sachs ‘Shooting Fish in a Barrel’
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 5th, 2009 9:37 AM |
Those who take risk do not always win. A variety of mathematical models dealing with risk address and negate the chance of almost uniform success by one party. While those on Wall Street would promote the overwhelming risks in the industry, I would maintain that Wall Street circa 2009 is not in the risk business. How so? Let’s review results from the firm regarded as the best at managing risk, that is Goldman Sachs.
The Financial Times provides insights into the Goldman Sachs ‘casino’ in writing this morning, Goldman Benefits From Trading Bonanza:
Traders at Goldman Sachs recorded only one daily loss in the third quarter, highlighting the trading bonanza sweeping Wall Street as central banks continue to pump billions of dollars into the financial system.
The performance – revealed on Wednesday in a regulatory filing – compares with two losing trading days in the previous quarter and confirms that the authorities’ drive to revive markets after the crisis is yielding huge windfalls for some banks.
Before the crisis, banks regularly recorded trading losses on several days in a quarter.
Goldman made more than $100m in profits on 36 of the 65 days in the three months to September and recorded more than $50m in profit on more than eight out of 10 trading days, the filing shows.
To lose money on a total of only three days over the last two quarters defies rules of logic, assuming that markets are free, fair, and balanced. Even in Vegas the house doesn’t win at that rate. The question begs then as to the nature of the supposed risks being taken by Goldman and every other Wall Street firm. Beyond the risks, we also need to question the very nature of the markets themselves. When a firm makes money 98% to 99% of the time, don’t tell me they’re taking risk. They are doing nothing more than ‘shooting fish in a barrel.’ How so? (more…)
October 24, 2009: Month to Date Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 24th, 2009 7:32 AM |
Did the market merely take a breather this week or is the ‘little engine that could’ getting tired? Are we distinguishing the winners from the laggards? Are the cracks in our economic foundation repairing or are some just too large to hold back the flow of red ink, i.e. embedded losses? Perhaps we are experiencing all of the above as we continue our journey along the new and varied trails of our economy. Let’s review the major economic statistics for the week, along with the month to date returns across a wide array of market segments.
I thank you for reading my work, and now let’s collectively ‘navigate the economic landscape,’ the mission of Sense on Cents. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to ask.
ECONOMIC DATA
I largely discount positive news on the housing front as I view them largely manipulated by Uncle Sam while delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures move ever higher. This may be an oversight on my part, but so be it.
Aside from that, I believe the most meaningful news this week was the GDP report from the UK. Please see my Friday morning commentary highlighting how the UK remains mired in recession.
Let’s move along to market performance. The figures I provide are the weekly close and the month-to-date returns on a percentage basis:
U.S. DOLLAR
$/Yen: 92.08 versus 89.68, +2.7%
Euro/Dollar: 1.500 versus 1.4635, +2.5%
U.S. Dollar Index: 75.44 versus 76.72, -1.7%
Commentary: the overall U.S. Dollar Index declined marginally this week. The dollar has improved versus the Japanese yen, but remains decidedly weak versus the Euro. The U.S. Dollar Index did break below 75.00 at one point early Friday. The correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and the equity markets remains quite high. Both markets ended the week close to unchanged. Have too many people bought equities and commodities while having sold the U.S. greenback? I have been asking that question for the last month so no reason to stop now. The biggest impact of the weak dollar is seen in the commodity markets and long term interest rates. Commodities continue to trade with a firm tone while interest rates move higher.
I reiterate my comment from previous weeks: while I think Washington is not disappointed in a relatively weak dollar, although they should be (“Dollar Devaluation Is a Dangerous Game”), other countries are not overly keen about further dollar weakness. Why? A weak dollar puts those countries in a marginally less competitive position in international trade. On this topic, please read “Brazil Wants A ‘Real’ity Check.”
COMMODITIES
Oil: $79.65/barrel versus $70.39, +13.1% REMAINS VERY FIRM
Gold: $1055/oz. versus $1008.2, +4.6%
DJ-UBS Commodity Index: 137.32 versus 127.683, +7.5%
Commentary: I repeat from last week, unless you grow your own crops or have your own source of energy, you should expect to get increasingly squeezed as prices at the supermarket and gas station are likely to head higher. While Washington will not address this development, these price moves are directly correlated with Washington’s weak dollar policy. The banks and others able to borrow cheap money for trading and investing benefit from the weak dollar. American consumers and savers get stuck with the bill.
The Baltic Dry Index once again moved higher and got back above the 3000 level. Is the improvement in the non-Japan Asian economic bloc for real? Certainly the economies in Europe and North American remain decidedly challenged.
I continue to believe these commodity tea leaves are an indication of inflationary expectations in these ‘inputs,’ while we encounter deflationary pressures in wages and real estate. (more…)
Adding Fuel to Goldman Exec Greg Smith’s Fire
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2012 10:06 AM |
While I believe Smith should have been more pointed in directing his fire, for those impugning Mr. Smith, including New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, I would offer that what Mr. Smith asserts is HIGHLY unlikely just a Goldman issue.
Why do you think JP Morgan’s CEO and Morgan Stanley’s CEO James Gorman informed their troops to hold their own fire in response to the bombshell launched by Mr. Smith? (more…)
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