RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
HomeWhat Are the Greatest Risks?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2011 10:41 AM |
In the midst of all the research and analysis put forth by virtually every entity within the financial services industry, I VERY rarely see any mention of what I deem to be the two greatest risks that individual investors face each and every day.
We are fed and can read volumes about a wide array of risks, including market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, currency risk, prepayment risk, volatility risk, and liquidity risk. While overwhelmed by analysis on these risks, my ‘sense on cents‘ leads me to focus primarily on the two greatest risks of all.
What are these risks and why is it that those within the financial services industry do not highlight them? (more…)
Mr. President, Are SIVs Considered Prop Trading?
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 22nd, 2010 8:09 AM |
Is President Obama’s proposal to rein in risk on Wall Street genuine or merely another Washington political ploy to curry favor with an enraged American electorate?
As with any proposal, the devil is always in the details. Initial pushback from Wall Street is strong but also informative. What is Wall Street highlighting? The large Wall Street banks are promoting the fact that proprietary trading operations do not encompass a large percentage of their overall business. In fact, JP Morgan already shut down an internal proprietary trading business in 2009.
I believe Wall Street will paint Obama’s proposal as an overreaching and aggressive intrusion into its business and free enterprise. What are we to make of all this? What exactly is Obama proposing? I’m not sure even he would know. The fact is, Obama’s proposal to curtail proprietary trading resides in defining exactly what proprietary trading encompasses. (more…)
Goldman Sachs ‘Shooting Fish in a Barrel’
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 5th, 2009 9:37 AM |
Those who take risk do not always win. A variety of mathematical models dealing with risk address and negate the chance of almost uniform success by one party. While those on Wall Street would promote the overwhelming risks in the industry, I would maintain that Wall Street circa 2009 is not in the risk business. How so? Let’s review results from the firm regarded as the best at managing risk, that is Goldman Sachs.
The Financial Times provides insights into the Goldman Sachs ‘casino’ in writing this morning, Goldman Benefits From Trading Bonanza:
Traders at Goldman Sachs recorded only one daily loss in the third quarter, highlighting the trading bonanza sweeping Wall Street as central banks continue to pump billions of dollars into the financial system.
The performance – revealed on Wednesday in a regulatory filing – compares with two losing trading days in the previous quarter and confirms that the authorities’ drive to revive markets after the crisis is yielding huge windfalls for some banks.
Before the crisis, banks regularly recorded trading losses on several days in a quarter.
Goldman made more than $100m in profits on 36 of the 65 days in the three months to September and recorded more than $50m in profit on more than eight out of 10 trading days, the filing shows.
To lose money on a total of only three days over the last two quarters defies rules of logic, assuming that markets are free, fair, and balanced. Even in Vegas the house doesn’t win at that rate. The question begs then as to the nature of the supposed risks being taken by Goldman and every other Wall Street firm. Beyond the risks, we also need to question the very nature of the markets themselves. When a firm makes money 98% to 99% of the time, don’t tell me they’re taking risk. They are doing nothing more than ‘shooting fish in a barrel.’ How so? (more…)
