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HomePaul Volcker Talks ‘Sense on Cents’
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 13th, 2010 2:52 PM |
Paul Volcker
What will the future of Wall Street hold? No man is attracting more attention regarding that very question than former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. What might the Volcker Rule mean for Wall Street? For those with an interest in the global economy and markets, Volcker provided an extensive interview recently to the Financial Times.
In this interview, the former Fed chair talks more ‘sense on cents’ than anybody I have come across since launching this blog a year ago. I STRONGLY recommend reading it and saving it. Volcker’s interview will serve as a fabulous reference map as we collectively navigate our economic landscape.
Paul Volcker is seen as one of the wise men of American public life. As chairman of the Federal Reserve under Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan he subdued inflation, for which he is lauded today, although it was controversial at the time. After President Obama’s election, Mr Volcker was made chairman of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, a position which initially seemed largely ceremonial. But Mr Volcker returned to the centre of financial and economic debate last month when Mr Obama endorsed his proposed separation of commercial banking and proprietary trading, a plan dubbed the “Volcker Rule”. (more…)
Liu Mingkang Provides Sense on Cents
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 16th, 2009 8:21 AM |
Liu Mingkang, Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission
With friends like this, who needs enemies?
That trite saying is far too simplistic in defining the diverse and convoluted nature of U.S.-Chinese relations. That said, as President Obama prepares to arrive in the People’s Republic of China for the first time during his Presidency, he is faced with an extremely aggressive overture from Liu Mingkang, China’s chief banking regulator.
What does Mr. Mingkang have to say? Well, let’s just say he has a drastically different opinion on U.S. monetary and fiscal policy than his counterparts in Washington. While our wizards in Washington, Messrs. Bernanke, Geithner, and Summers would lead us to believe that the rebound in markets is a precursor to a rebound in our economy, Mr. Mingkang has a decidedly different take. The Financial Times sheds light on this topic in writing, China Says Fed Policy Threatens Recovery:
The US Federal Reserve is fueling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.
Liu Mingkang , China’s chief banking regulator, said the combination of a weak dollar and low interest rates had encouraged a “huge carry trade” that was having a “massive impact on global asset prices”. (more…)
“White House Ties to Wall Street Doom Bank Rescue”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 17th, 2009 6:37 AM |
None other than Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University provided a direct shot across Washington’s and Wall Street’s bow today. As I read Bloomberg’s Stiglitz Says White House Ties to Wall Street Doom Bank Rescue, the little voice in my head kept repeating, ” he’s right” or “I agree.” I am reluctant to copy and paste entire articles, but this one is so important that I feel compelled and will add commentary or links as warranted.
The Obama administration’s plan to fix the U.S. banking system is destined to fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients,” Stiglitz said in an interview. The people who designed the plans are “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”
The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, isn’t large enough to recapitalize the banking system, and the administration hasn’t been direct in addressing that shortfall, he said. Stiglitz said there are conflicts of interest at the White House because some of Obama’s advisers have close ties to Wall Street.
Seems as if Stiglitz would agree with How Wall Street Bought Washington.
“We don’t have enough money, they don’t want to go back to Congress, and they don’t want to do it in an open way and they don’t want to get control” of the banks, a set of constraints that will guarantee failure, Stiglitz said.
The return to taxpayers from the TARP is as low as 25 cents on the dollar, he said. “The bank restructuring has been an absolute mess.” (more…)
See Me in My Office
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 11th, 2009 7:29 PM |
What student in high school, college, or graduate school does not dread hearing his teacher or professor remark, “young man, see me in my office!” Good news is typically shared in an open forum even if in private discussion. Breaking out the ruler is often reserved for “the office.”
Picture this, as young Barack Obama and Timmy Geithner go in to meet their professor, Mr. Wall Street Economist.
“You wanted to see us, sir?”
“Yes. Even though it’s early in the marking period, I need to speak with both of you about your performance. I detect some issues.”
“Well, just what do you mean, sir? We’re trying hard. We’re working at grasping the material.”
“It strikes me, gentlemen, that you are not fully focused, you are stuck more on appearance than substance, you are quite glib at times, and have an interest more in being liked than in being comprehensive. Those are not the building blocks for long term success!!”
Taken fully aback, the gentlemen lean forward and apprise the professor, “Change is coming. Don’t worry, you will see a rededication and resulting redistribution in our performance. We have become friendly with some previous students who have offered to help us: Nancy, Harry, Hillary, Steny, Chris, and a few other all have reached out. We’ll speak with them. Maybe we can borrow their notes! We’re not going back, we’re moving forward. Change!!”
The professor responds, “I hope so, but I have always thought blind hope is a lousy hedge. We’ll see!!”
If only Barack and Tim were merely going through school and had the luxury of learning on the job; however, in real life Obama, Geithner Get Low Grades From Economists.
LD
Ceteris Paribus
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 2:01 PM |
Economic and budgetary analysis by their very nature often employ a “ceteris paribus” approach or similarly base line assumptions. Ceteris paribus, translated as “all other things being equal,” or base line assumptions are necessary given the fact that economic analysis has so many variables. Well, let me share with you that ceteris are NEVER paribus and base line assumptions are almost always skewed to bias the results in a desired direction.
***UPDATE: I was not aware at the time of my writing but it is reported that the Obama administration is projecting the economy will grow at a 3.2% GDP in 2010. That assumption is wildly optimistic. No respected economist would project that figure. Consensus has it in the 1.5-2% range. What does this mean? Well, lower growth means lower revenues, means higher deficits, means greater funding needs, means more borrowing, means higher government interest rates, means more “crowding out”, means slower growth for the economy going forward!!
There was little doubt about President Obama’s social agenda and economic platform during his campaign. While markets will somewhat discount campaign rhetoric, they do not discount economic reality. The markets are sending a strong signal that Obama’s economic proposals and proposed budget are anything but pro-growth. Obama Delivers $3.6 Trillion Budget Blueprint runs the risk of raising taxes at a time of economic distress. Raising taxes was a prime factor that increased the economic malaise in the 1930s. Obama is willing to take that risk as he sticks to his campaign plan and is pressured by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. (more…)
