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Investing Uncertainties in the World of Fat Tails

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2010 1:26 PM |

There is little doubt we are living through a period of great uncertainty. There are a wide array of vastly diverging opinions as to what our future economic landscape entails. How often have you felt that people with dramatically disparate outlooks on the market and economy each encompass a number of cogent points? I have felt that sensation numerous times. What is the key variable in each and every opinion and assessment? Timing. When things occur is often more important than what actually occurs.

The expected timing of events leads many to believe that we are living through a period with elevated tail risk, or more succinctly fat tails. In layman’s terms:

What Does Tail Risk Mean? (more…)






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