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Posts Tagged ‘impact of higher taxes on economy’

Jeff Gundlach Had the Call

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 25th, 2010 7:40 AM |

What is it that distinguishes the greatest athletes in sports, such as Michael Jordan, Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky, Peyton Manning, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird? While these ‘best of the best’ have and had many extraordinary athletic skills, those who love the game know that these world class athletes were able to see exceptionally fast moving action in slow motion. (In Manning’s case, he still does!!) As such, they played the game three steps in front of their teammates and four steps in front of the competition. As a result, special things happened.

In the world of investing, there are a handful of investment managers who possess similar instincts. Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is one of them. Two months ago, Jeff was the keynote speaker at a Morningstar conference. Let’s roll the tape, as I highlighted Jeff Gundlach Sees 10Yr Treasury Rallying to 2.5%:

3. What does Gundlach predict for government bonds?

He said there hasn’t been a single day when the U.S. government bond market has failed to be the beneficiary of risk concerns globally, especially over the euro. “And as long as that’s the case, the probability is the 10-year Treasury is going to go to the yield of two-and-a-half percent,” he said. “Which sounds very low, but it’s been there before. In Japan, when they were dealing with similar problems, the bond yield stayed below that level for 20 years. So the bond market outlook in government bonds, for the time being, is positive.”

Where was the 10Yr Treasury when Gundlach made this call? (more…)

Multiplication Isn’t Stimulating and Stimulus Isn’t Multiplying

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 17th, 2009 12:31 PM |

What 3rd grade kid ever really enjoyed the multiplication tables? Every youth in Boston would race through those tables in order to get outside and play some street hockey, a much more stimulating experience!!

In a slightly perverse way, I think many participants on our economic landscape would prefer some form of youthful entertainment because President Obama’s Stimulus Plan is not creating any sort of multiplier for our economy.

Bloomberg takes the offensive in reporting, Obama Stimulus Fails to Reboot Economy as No Multiplier Effect:

The debate over whether the $787 billion stimulus package is sufficiently large or efficiently designed obscures a broader question, some economists say: Can any fiscal measure pull the economy out of the recession?

With credit still crimped and the outlook for consumer demand gloomy due to rising unemployment and increased personal saving, no amount of government intervention will be able to stanch the hemorrhaging of jobs and quickly ease the U.S. out of its deepest recession in a half-century, they said.

Why hasn’t the government stimulus gained traction, attracted significant private capital into the economy, and spurred the economic multiplier? In my opinion, for the following reasons:

1. Obama’s basic economic premise is the redistribution of wealth implemented across virtually every economic program and proposal. He won the election and he is entitled to put forth his plans. Whether the plans work or not is for the market to decide. So far, that question remains unanswered but the Stimulus is receiving very poor grades.

2. The markets, whether for housing or other assets, are not being allowed to clear. What does that mean? Assets are not being transferred from weaker hands to stronger hands backed by private capital in a timely fashion. Why? Uncle Sam is propping up individuals and institutions which could not now, nor should they ever, have financed the purchase of these assets. The result is that prospective buyers of these assets are compelled to hold off injecting new private capital because the overhang of current supply and future supply is weighing on the market. (more…)

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