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HomeMorgan Stanley Remains Bearish on Housing
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 13th, 2010 1:20 PM |
The equity markets can and will do whatever they want, but when I look at the economy I remain steadfastly fixed on our housing and labor situation. When these cornerstones of our economic landscape not only stabilize but show marked improvements I will become more constructive on our overall outlook. Are we there yet? No way.
Thanks to a loyal Sense on Cents supporter, I am happy to provide Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Housing Outlook for 2010. What are the key points to this report?
1. Housing transactions have increased and prices have stabilized due to massive government supports.
2. The bottoming process continues and the trend for housing remains down given the high percentages of homeowners with negative equity, the high rate of unemployment, the lack of a viable Jumbo mortgage market, and increasing rates of mortgage delinquencies. (more…)
2010 Outlook for Banking
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 19th, 2009 9:31 AM |
What does the future hold for our banking industry? Will it be ‘business as usual,’ as some on Wall Street might like? Will the populist rage sweeping the country compel those in Washington to enact meaningful reform? Will credit loosen? Will housing stabilize and support increased lending by banks? How many banks will close? So many questions and so much uncertainty. While we can make projections on all these fronts, let’s tap into the minds of those who monitor developments in banking on a daily basis.
The American Banker is the banker’s bible when looking for cutting edge analysis and perspectives. Today, this fabulous journal brings us over the wall and into the minds of top rated banking analysts on Wall Street. Let’s navigate, 2010 Outlook : Red Tape, Housing Could Impede Banks’ Recovery:
The banking industry may be on the mend, but its recovery could be hindered by heavy-handed regulation and more pain in the housing market, among other things.
That was the consensus of three banking analysts who participated in an American Banker roundtable late last month in New York.
The veteran market watchers — Anthony Polini of Raymond James, David Hendler of CreditSights Inc. and David Ritter of Argus Research Co. — said the worst of the financial meltdown may be over, but banks are still facing heavy losses and depressed profits, particularly if the government gets carried away with financial and other reform efforts.
In my opinion, these analysts provide a mix of thoughtful insights combined with industry bias. That said, the overall review is compelling. Let’s touch on a few major themes. (more…)
