Don’t Fight the Fed
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2009 12:37 PM |
“Cover all your Treasury shorts!!”
I will never forget that mandate put forth by Tom Kirch, then head of Fixed Income at First Boston, as the stock market was crashing in October 1987. As a young trader, moments like that are not soon forgotten. Why? Mr. Kirch through dint of experience knew that you “don’t fight the Fed.”
With the crash of the stock market, the Fed cut interest rates and flooded the system with liquidity. In the process, the U.S. Treasury market had a massive rally. Kirch knew what was going to happen and saved the firm millions in the process. You can rest assured I immediately broke out some ‘Buy’ tickets and covered my Treasury shorts in a heartbeat.
“Don’t fight the Fed” is a tried and true rule of trading on Wall Street. While the bond market can often get overbought or oversold in the midst of a Fed easing or tightening scenario, ultimately if the Fed wants to move rates in one direction or another, it will make it happen.
Fast forward to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy 2009. How are market participants supposed to view the Fed currently? Dare I say, as challenging as it may be for market participants, myself included, “don’t fight the Fed” is still very much applicable. How so?
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The All Powerful Federal Reserve
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 12th, 2009 8:10 AM |
What would our founding fathers think about the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve?
Is there any doubt that the true greatness of our Constitution is found in the balance of power amongst the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Where in that mix is the power centered in the financial branch? Who controls the financial branch? Welcome to the kingdom of the Federal Reserve.
To whom does the Fed answer? How transparent is the Fed? Can the Fed be too powerful? Is the Fed “too big to fail?” How skilled is the Fed? Is it infallible? Does the Fed get involved in our political process? So many questions. Such limited clarity.
As our Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy evolves, the Fed has never been more influential in our economic and political process. Is the Fed too powerful? Let’s navigate the landscape of the Fed and see what we learn.
Rather than my regurgitating answers to frequently asked questions of the Fed, please allow me to link to the Fed’s own site for these “frequently asked questions.”
Let’s dig deeper. I want to specifically address, two specific aspects which fall under, What are the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities?
-supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
-maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
Looking back over the course of the last ten years, how could any self-respecting central banker, politician, financial executive, market analyst, or financial blogger give the Fed anything other than a failing grade in these realms. Does that failing grade deserve to be assigned more to former Fed chair Alan Greenspan than Ben Bernanke? Perhaps, but the Fed as a whole failed miserably on these critically important initiatives.
As we move forward on our economic landscape, how will our “political leaders” within the executive and legislative branches address the allocation of responsibilities within the financial system? (more…)
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Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 8 Comments »