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Posts Tagged ‘Brave New World of Uncle Sam Economy’

Obama Playing ‘Four Corners’ Offense in Budgetball

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 20th, 2009 12:04 PM |

I thought Barack Obama liked basketball. Lovers of the game coerced the NCAA to utilize a 24-second clock in order to speed the game up, showcase players’ talents, and render the North Carolina ‘four corners’ offense ineffective. What was the basic premise of that offense? Stall tactics.

Well, welcome to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy where there is none other than President Obama working the budgetball around in true four corners fashion. The Associated Press reports White House Putting Off Budget Update:

The White House is being forced to acknowledge the wide gap between its once-upbeat predictions about the economy and today’s bleak landscape.

The administration’s annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama’s budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.

The release of the update – usually scheduled for mid-July – has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town Aug. 7 on its summer recess.

Who is playing ball with Barack? Tim Geithner, Peter Orszag, Larry Summers, and Austan Goolsbee, along with every other member of his administration. No surprise. The question begs, though, who is playing defense to expose this purely partisan political stall tactic? (more…)

Wall Street Plays Washington

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 7th, 2009 5:15 PM |

Is the charade played out on Wall Street and in Washington anything more than the equivalent of a dinnertime show at a casino complex?

Politicians and bankers work the stage while the media maitre’d pretends to care how you really feel. Ultimately, the curtain goes down, the lights go on and you’re stuck with a bill that leaves you aghast.

Welcome to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam economy 2009.

Today Bloomberg releases news that Delinquencies on U.S. Home-Equity Loans Reach Record:

Late payments on home-equity loans rose to a record in the first quarter as 18 straight months of job losses and a slumping economy left more borrowers unable to pay their debts, the American Bankers Association reported.

The ABA is not exactly timely with this news in regard to home equity lines of credit; Sense on Cents shared similar color on May 20th in “Bank Stress Tests: Vigorous or Sham? Let’s Review HELOC Losses”:

For those not aware, Turbo-Tim Geithner’s Bank Stress Test utilized an assumed cumulative loss on this product of 6-8% in the base case. The most adverse scenario assumed cumulative losses on HELOCs of 8-11%.

What did our 12th Street Capital friends learn in their analysis? KD writes:

What I find very interesting here is comparing the Cumulative Loss numbers on these deals versus the Government’s assumption of losses in the stress test. As a reminder, our friends in D.C. assumed in a More Adverse Scenario that Helocs on bank balance sheets would generate losses of 8% to 11%. Now I know their numbers represent the projections going forward for the next two years, but when you take a look at numerous ‘06 and ‘07 deals already ringing up losses north of 20% I find it hard to reconcile. I think the Treasury has a very rosy picture of the loss curve going forward.

This brings us to the topic of losses within the banking system and the integrity of the Bank Stress Tests. The Wall Street banks were more than happy to “put on a show” with Secretary Geithner leading the orchestra and the FASB in a supporting role given their relaxation of the mark-to-market. Now we get to revisit the fact that banks are still sitting on hundreds of billions in embedded losses. (more…)






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