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HomeDr. Edwin Vieira’s Amazing Crystal Ball, 2006
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 24th, 2009 9:52 PM |
I will admit that I am not a student of the Great Depression, but I have started reviewing that period. Obviously I, like every American, hope our economy stabilizes and we regain our footing and return to prosperity. While the pragmatic optimist in me believes that can happen, the trader and risk manager in me tells me to review the Depression, understand the dynamics, assess the risks of our current period, and prepare accordingly.
I hope and believe people who have been reading my work for a while appreciate that I am not an alarmist. Whether working on Wall Street as a trader and salesman or now writing for Sense on Cents, a measured, analytical approach has always generated the best results. In that vein, I discount speculators and salesmen who attempt to make a buck from heightened levels of anxiety. That said, the elevated levels of risk in our economy, markets, and global finance require an equally elevated sense of risk analysis and historical analysis.
Given some of the economic saber rattling emanating from China and the lessened fiscal support emanating from Europe, the threats of global protectionism are clearly growing. That scenario also occurred during the Depression. (more…)
Confidence
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 21st, 2009 10:07 AM |
Our economy, markets, and global finance are impacted by a wide array of factors. While various analysts will focus on the differing magnitudes of a variety of these factors, I know of nobody who would not say that ultimately the greatest factor of all is “confidence”. While there is a monthly Consumer Confidence Survey generated by the University of Michigan, confidence is not measured by hard data.
Regrettably, we are currently suffering a crisis of confidence. The crowd in Washington has not helped instill confidence with its scattered approach to legislation and policy.
Over and above the problems in Washington, our global economy is suffering from increasing protectionist measures. Our current administration may talk about free trade and open markets, but their actions speak otherwise. Those actions impact global confidence. Other countries and regions are equally guilty of the same issues. (more…)
Will Jamie Dimon be the Next Treasury Secretary?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 20th, 2009 9:02 PM |
The pressure on Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is increasing from within the Democratic Party, across the aisle, and the media. Will Tim be fed to the lions? Well, the standard procedures of implementing change seem to be occurring. What are those steps?
JP Morgan Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon
1. A vote of confidence by the Administration. Always a kiss of death!
2. Leak the name of a strong prospective secretary.
Who might that be? JP Morgan Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon.
Dimon is enormously well respected in Washington and Wall Street. He can quickly build a team. He has run very large organizations. He has been a longtime Democratic supporter and publicly promoted President Obama and his plans.
I find it interesting that Dimon’s name was bandied about last October as a prospective leader of Treasury. Market Watch highlighted this fact in reporting The Next Treasury Secretary Is…
As the firestorm over the prospective legislation to restrict Wall Street bonuses grows, do not be surprised to see Dimon ride in on the white horse to broker peace between Washington, the financial community, and the public at large.
LD
Throwing the Baby Out with the Bath Water!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 20th, 2009 3:12 PM |
I questioned a Wall Street friend of mine this morning whether Washington in general and the Obama administration and Democratic Congress specifically could be so myopic or actually are so calculating in attempting to enact legislation that would impose tax rates of 70-90% on certain Wall Street employees. My friend quickly responded that the Washington crowd is not that smart.
Make no mistake, the proposed legislation of taxing certain Wall Street employees at 70-90% rates is targeted at addressing public outrage over improperly allocated compensation. However, Washington is utilizing a bazooka when in fact they need a laser.
In so doing, the politicians pushing this legislation are showing themselves to be misinformed and misaligned in understanding the basic tenets of capitalism and free market principles. (more…)
Kangaroo Court . . . MUST READ!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 19th, 2009 4:20 PM |
The kangaroo court on Capitol Hill just passed a bill to tax bonus payments at a 90% rate for employees (with family incomes in excess of $250,000) of AIG and other firms that received $5 billion or more in government bailouts. In my opinion, 
this piece of legislation is a poorly constructed means of recapturing government funds.
I have previously stated that firms which were truly bailed out by the government should be subject to strict government compensation controls. A number of firms – such as Northern Trust, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs – were compelled to take government funds. If employees of these firms are subject to this tax, it will be a travesty and injustice of unprecedented proportions. I believe that Congress is unknowingly escalating class warfare amidst a facade and charade of protecting the public. I believe we will see public outrage from employees at these firms (JP Morgan, Northern Trust, Goldman, Wells Fargo) that can only be rivaled by our forefathers back in the 1770s. This tax is another means of promoting the income redistribution upon which Obama ran his campaign. Taxation without representation is tyranny!!! (more…)
Let’s Listen to Stephen Harper
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 11:22 AM |
A month or so ago, I introduced former Australian Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary Paul Keating to our readers here at Sense on Cents. Keating offered a wealth of piercing and insightful perspectives on the world of global finance. He forecasted the likely shift of global financial power toward the surplus countries in Asia. While I have never seen nor heard Keating’s views broadcast here in the United States, I appreciated his sobering analysis.
In a similar vein, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not exactly a household name in the United States. We were provided the political strappings of President Obama’s initial foreign trip when he traveled to Ottawa to meet Harper 6 weeks ago. The pomp and circumstance along with the Royal Canadian Mounties made for some nice theatre. (more…)
AIG: Ain’t It Great!!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 8:54 AM |
Where can one generate billions in losses and still walk out the door with millions in compensation? Welcome to AIG, now known here at Sense on Cents as “Ain’t It Great!!”
As details leak out of Congress as to who knew what and when did they know it, the level of political posturing is soaring. Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), who has fed at the Wall Street trough for years, offers us these pearls of wisdom: “We intend to do everything in our power to prevent the payments from being made and to recoup the payments that have already been made. We will take this back and return it to its rightful owners, the American taxpayers.” Chuck, where were you six months ago when the initial AIG loan was negotiated? (more…)
