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HomeExpected Growth of the Black Market
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 14th, 2012 7:46 AM |
In the course of a recent discussion with an associate involved in a business that “follows the money”, I asked him what he projected for the US economy. In very short order he told me that he strongly believes that the US economy will experience very real growth. That’s good right? Not so fast.
Growth where, though? What sectors and what markets? His response? The black market.
What is the black market and why would our economy experience growth in this fashion? (more…)
Libor Scandal: “Biggest Financial Fraud of All Time”
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2012 2:00 PM |
With news leaking that Union Bank of Switzerland is poised to pay a $1 billion fine for its involvement in the manipulation of Libor, we once again are led to the conclusion that, for those involved in running the major global financial institutions, “CRIME PAYS.”
It is insulting to those who have even an ounce of decency in their body to think that institutions such as Barclays, UBS, and certainly many more can engage in the “biggest financial fraud of all time” and simply write a check for their complicity.
The “biggest financial fraud of all time,” LD? Yes, I have defined this price rigging racket in just such a fashion many times. Those are not merely my words today. Who else joins me and echoes those sentiments? (more…)
Federal Reserve Misses The Target
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2012 8:21 AM |
Stand back.
A marksman with a powerful weapon not properly focused on an appropriate target is capable of wreaking real havoc.
Who is the marksman? Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. What is his powerful weapon? Monetary policy. What is the appropriate target? The level of employment in our nation. What might be the havoc? The list is too long but let’s start with a breakdown in the relationship between monetary policy and inflation and work our way to civil unrest. Havoc does not typically connote a well defined set of outcomes.
Am I being overly alarmist? I think not given the size of Bernanke’s weapon and how wildly off target he really is in the message he sent the markets just yesterday. What did he say? (more…)
What Is Really Going On in Global Economy/Markets?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2012 11:58 AM |
There is a reason that Jeff Gundlach and team at Doubleline have gone from zero to $50 BILLION in assets under management in a shorter time frame than some people can go to the bathroom and get back to their desk. What is that reason?
In my humble opinion, Gundlach and his colleagues have an uncanny ability to be three steps ahead of the competition while scanning the global economic and market landscape from a 360 degree angle. What makes them even more unique? (more…)
Libor Scandal et al: The True and Total Cost
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2012 8:29 AM |
Would it be even possible to measure the total cost of the manipulation of Libor? A basis point here, a few basis points there and nobody really gets hurt, right? No, not right.
The simple fact is the manipulation of the most widely tracked short term interest rate in the world comes with the same very real costs attached to all forms of corruption, including the money laundering scandals at HSBC, Standard Chartered and who knows how many other institutions.
What are these costs? (more…)
HSBC Money Laundering Scandal: More Racketeering
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 11th, 2012 8:42 AM |
Can you imagine if those involved in organized rackets including prostitution, drug dealing, human trafficking and the like were able to resolve their criminal activities by merely paying a fine?
What do you think their response would be? Do you think they would take a vow of chastity and then look to engage in upstanding business? Of course not. They would think “how the hell do we get that money back?”
Human nature being what it is, are we to believe that simply because executives of a banking institution issue a few mea culpas, accept some tough language, clawback some individual compensation, and profess to clean up their act BUT FACE NO INDIVIDUAL PROSECUTIONS might really change their stripes? Or are they inclined to think, “how the hell do we get that money back?” (more…)
Libor Scandal: This is Racketeering, Folks!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 10th, 2012 9:00 AM |
If it looks like a racket, and smells like a racket, and feels like a racket, it is probably a racket.
Those involved in the Libor scandal either directly or on the periphery certainly have little interest in this scandal being defined as a racket and thus subject to the RICO Act. Yet if we are going to have a degree of integrity in defining just what the hell goes on in our financial markets, then we had better hold the bar at the appropriate level if we ever care to root out the cronyism that is eroding our public interest.
The key point there being whether those charged with regulating our markets are truly willing and able to do just that. What is racketeering? (more…)
I Know How to Solve the Fiscal Cliff
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2012 11:39 AM |
How does one spell dysfunction?
W-A-S-H-I-N-G-T-O-N-D-C, that’s how.
While most people in our nation are compelled to develop and live within a budget, the incompetent and ill-advised in Washington strut their stuff with little regard for our nation’s general well being.
The simple fact is many politicians in Washington could not manage their way out of a paper bag yet we expect them to manage our nation’s finances. (more…)
A Better December Jobs Report? Wait, Revise That
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 7th, 2012 9:38 AM |
The unemployment report for the month of November was just released and is better than expected with non-farm payrolls increasing by 146, 000 jobs and the overall unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%. Happy times are here again, right? Wait, revise that.
While many pundits in Washington and on Wall Street are more than welcome to go little further than the headline numbers, let’s go behind the curtain and look a little bit closer. What do we see? Ooh, what’s this on the very last line of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report . . . (more…)
David Kotok on Why We Need to Go Over the Cliff
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 6th, 2012 8:26 AM |
When might an individual with serious personal problems decide to make necessary change in his life? When they reach the depths of hell and decide “it does not need to be this way and it won’t any longer.”
How about a nation? Is there any doubt our nation faces enormous problems, fiscal and otherwise? The manner in which we confront these problems will have a profound impact on our nation for generations. Will Washington swerve and avoid the fiscal cliff that some believe will lead us into a hellacious recession or are we better off actually experiencing that so as to finally wake up and make the necessary change? Are we even capable?
David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors provides real ‘sense on cents’ on this topic in response to a question posed to him, “what would you like see happen with the fiscal cliff?” (more…)
