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HomeThe Stakes Are Raised
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 28th, 2009 7:46 AM |
The move higher in rates and lower in the U.S. dollar is nothing more than the market response to Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and ultimately Barack Obama for the cards that they have already shown.
Managing one’s personal business and finances is anything but a game, but the manner in which Wall Street and Washington address economic and financial issues incorporates many aspects of “game theory.” As such, we need to adapt our own thought process and financial management accordingly.
Our leaders in Washington have shown many cards, including:
1. $780 billion Stimulus
2. proposed $3.5 trillion budget
3. multiple trillions in backstops to the financial industry (Sense on Cents’ link to Subsidyscope provides a wealth of info)
4. a trillion dollar plus commitment to quantitative easing targeted over a 6 month time horizon.
Be mindful that the “Washington wizards” are at the “table” and “playing the game” with borrowed funds. Each of us is also in the “game” whether we know it or not. We, along with foreign participants, are funding the window from which the wizards have to get the cash to stay in the game. The move higher in interest rates on the long end of our yield curve is nothing more than market participants (investors) “raising” the stakes on the “wizards.” (more…)
The Wheels Have Come Off Barack’s Bond Bus
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2009 5:56 PM |
Despite what market analysts, media mavens, and government officials may assert, from an investment standpoint, the price action in the bond market can only be defined as “THEY’VE LOST CONTROL!!”
Who’s they? Bernanke, Geithner, Summers, Obama, and team. How so? The weight of the massive deficit spending along with the embedded costs of the Fed’s quantitative easing program are pressuring the bond market and driving interest rates dramatically higher. (10yr U.S. Treasury moved higher by almost 20 basis points today to 3.75%, a full 55 basis points higher over the last week. This is an ENORMOUS move.)
The knock on effect is increased anxiety in the equity markets (down 2% today) and a highly likely further slowing in the economy. I am not surprised. Given the programs and approach put forth by Obama, along with the economic turmoil, there was little doubt we would experience very high levels of deficit spending. Prior to the inauguration (January 4th to be precise), I surmised:
I also believe that despite the Fed and Treasury purchasing government and mortgage debt, these rates will end up much higher at the end of this year than they are now simply due to the growing deficit. A move higher in these rates will potentially cause further anguish within the equity markets.
I have tried to proactively highlight why I thought the government bond bubble was bursting (Is The Government Bond Bubble Getting Ready To Burst?) and just yesterday broached the negative impact on interest rates of all the mortgage refinancing activity (Mortgage Refi Activity Is Driving Rates Higher).
For those involved in trading or investing, successful calls are measured by direction, magnitude, and time. This call on rates has been a fairly patient development, but given the dramatic shift higher in rates over the last week, the implications of this move can now be embraced. Those implications include a revaluation of the equity markets (lower) and the economy (forestalled recovery). Beware of people who discount this move in interest rates. The fact is it has more to run. In my opinion, the move higher in rates is not only a reflection of the supply of bonds (both government and mortgage) but also an indication of further deterioration in our currency precipitating inflation.
Can the Federal Reserve do anything to defend the currency? Increase short term interest rates. Does anybody think our economy can afford an increase in short term rates at this juncture? NO WAY! There truly is very little the Fed or Treasury can do at this juncture. Thus, in my opinion, they’ve truly lost control as “the wheels have come off the bus.” Welcome to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam economy 2009.
LD
Are We There Yet? “Aftermath of Economic Crises” Revisited
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2009 3:25 PM |
Are we there yet? What parent does not hear those words ringing in their ears? Well, in regard to our economic trail, let’s revisit an insightful piece of economic analysis put forth by Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and Professor Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland.
I initially reviewed Rogoff’s and Reinhart’s treatise in my January piece, “Time, Why You Punish Me?” Let’s revisit and review if we’re there yet, and if not just how much further we may have to drive. I wrote at the time:
In the midst of ongoing reading and research, I was fortunate to come across a presentation prepared by Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland, entitled “Aftermath of Economic Crises”
This work reviews a total of 18 banking crises which led to economic recessions since WW II. They put particular emphasis on 5 of these crises: Spain in 1977, Norway 1987, Finland 1991, Sweden 1991, Japan 1992. Each of the crises they studied share three characteristics:
1. Asset Market Collapse
Housing price declines averaged 35% over a 6 year timeframe. Equity price collapses averaged 55% over three and a half years.
Our housing markets are widely divergent with the major metropolitan cities within CA, AZ, NV, FL, and MI down anywhere from 25-35% over the last 12 months and down approximately 10-15% the year before that. Other markets have held up much better and are down approximately 10-15% in the last year. The national average declined 19% in the last year.
Our equity markets are currently 40% off the highs having declined slightly north of 50% at the March lows. (more…)
Full Throttle
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2009 11:28 AM |
To say that we are in the economic fight of our lives would be a gross understatement. While we are feeding ammo into all our weaponry on the main deck, are we remiss in keeping a close eye on what is happening “in the engine room”?
Let’s go into the control room on the main deck and scope things out. On one wing, we see the plans to combat the problems in the commercial real estate market have suffered a setback. Bloomberg reconnaissance provides details: Top Rated Commercial Mortgage Debt May Face Cuts:
The highest-graded bonds backed by commercial mortgages may be cut by Standard & Poor’s, potentially rendering the securities ineligible for a $1 trillion U.S. program to jumpstart lending.
As much as 90 percent of so-called super senior commercial- mortgage backed bonds sold in 2007 may be affected as the ratings firm changes how it assesses the debt, New York-based S&P said today in a report. About 25 percent of the bonds sold in 2005, and 60 percent of those sold in 2006 may be cut.
“We believe these transactions are characterized by increasingly more aggressive underwriting than prior vintages,” S&P said. “Furthermore, recent-vintage CMBS, particularly those issued since 2006, were originated during a time of peak rents and values,” and may be more affected by falling rents.
Cutting the ratings would exclude the securities from the Federal Reserve’s program to bolster credit markets by financing the purchase of older commercial real-estate debt. To be eligible for the program, collateral can’t carry a rating below AAA from any rating firm.
This development is a MAJOR setback in our economic battle. An overhang of office space and underperforming real estate properties will be a significant drag not only on earnings for holders of the loans but also on the economies where these properties are located. (more…)
Mortgage Refi Activity Is Driving Rates Higher
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2009 7:17 PM |
In Wall Street terms, the wheels are coming off the Treasury bus. What does that mean in layman’s terms? Interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities are ratcheting higher. Why? I have addressed the massive supply of global government bonds that will be issued in order to finance the exploding deficits. For newer readers, you can find my thoughts on this topic in Is The Government Bond Bubble Getting Ready To Burst? UPDATE #2.
The dynamics of the massive supply of bond issuance to fund global deficits will not change. To wit, our market needs to absorb $60 billion in 5yr and 7yr notes tomorrow and Thursday. Long term interest rates in our U.S. Treasury market moved higher by another 10 basis points again today to a level of 3.55%.
Over and above that, though, there is another significant reason that is driving our bond market lower and interest rates higher. This reason is receiving little to no attention by the media or market analysts. In fact, the color allocated to this factor is strictly viewed as a positive. I am talking about the waves of mortgage refinancing precipitated by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program.
How could refinancing activity further pressure the government bond market driving interest rates higher? Well, let’s accept the premise that any government program is never risk free or cost free. The quantitative easing employed by the Federal Reserve to purchase government and mortgage-backed securities has very real costs. The extraordinary volume of purchases of newly issued mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve has allowed millions of homeowners to lower their mortgage payments. This is great for those benefitting. What are the costs? (more…)
Municipal Finance: Will Uncle Sam Post Bail?
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2009 3:09 PM |
Is every village, town, city, and state in our country poised to receive a “get out of jail” free card from Uncle Sam? I linked to The New York Times article, Localities Want U.S. to Support Muni Bonds, in the Newsworthy section of Sense on Cents. Upon further review, it deserves comment.
In my opinion, this support of the municipal market may very well represent the greatest violation of a moral hazard to date. Why? Municipalities are by edict required to balance their budgets. A municipal budget which is able to obviate the tough decisions and choices in the budgetary process will lose that rigor.
Politicians of all stripes will make the case that the municipal default rate is extremely low and, as such, a federal backstop in the form of bond insurance is truly a very low risk proposition. Please allow me to opine that the same argument was made in the quasi-guarantee provided to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Those two giants are now wards of the state having been utilized by politicians from both sides of the aisle as campaign “piggy banks” for the better part of twenty years.
The New York Times highlights that the federal guarantee of municipal debt is not all that Uncle Sam may be asked to bail:
“All kinds of municipal borrowers are facing revenue shortfalls,” said Mr. Decker. “California is the largest example. Some states are better off than others. But all outstanding debt is backed by tax revenues. And municipalities are facing a greater or lesser level of distress.”
Also clamoring for help is a group of municipalities that purchased Lehman debt, which is now nearly worthless. Legislation authorizing the use of relief money to make these purchases was introduced by two California Democratic representatives, Jackie Speier and Anna Eshoo. If approved, this would be more like a bailout than a guarantee, because the federal government would be paying face value for debt that otherwise has little value.
The price tag on that proposal is around $1.6 billion. The argument promoted by the two congresswomen is that the Treasury and Fed allowed Lehman to fail, causing governmental bodies to lose money.
Whether a price tag is $1.6 billion, $1.6 million or $1.6 trillion a potential federal bailout of a poor investment decision is the antithesis of free market capitalism. Where does it end? (more…)
Housing: Cheap and Getting Cheaper
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2009 10:59 AM |
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released this morning and disappointed with a worse than expected reading of -19% versus a year ago. Relative to the 4th quarter 2008, home prices nationwide are down 7.5%.
Are home prices continuing to decline despite the support of a variety of government programs or perhaps because of them? What do I mean? Any market – whether stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, or housing – is constantly trying to assess both current and future demand and supply. Potential buyers or investors can most accurately assess the value of an asset when provided with full and accurate information.
In my opinion, our housing market is suffering from the unknown supply of homes – currently involved in a mortgage modification process – that will likely hit the market in the future due to foreclosure. The fact is that the ultimate default rate on many of the homes involved in a mortgage modification is extremely high. As the Wall Street Journal highlights this morning, Mortgage Modifying Fails to Halt Defaults:
A key finding from the Fitch report was that subprime, pooled loans that have been modified are souring at high rates despite a change in the loan terms. Fitch said a conservative projection was that between 65% and 75% of modified subprime loans will fall 60-days or more delinquent within 12 months of the loan change. That finding echoes prior U.S.-bank-regulatory agency reports of high redefault rates for modified loans.
The Fitch report said one reason for the high redefault rate was public pressure to modify loans even for borrowers who were likely to default whether the loan terms were changed or not. Fitch said another cause was falling home prices. Ultimately, these homeowners, deep underwater, walk away from the home, resulting in the redefault of a loan.
The simple fact is a significant percentage of the loans being modified NEVER should have been written in the first place. Modifying these loans merely forestalls the home from being foreclosed and sold. I do not believe government officials have real appreciation that this forestalled supply actually puts further pressure on housing overall. Why? The market is not being allowed to “clear,” a process in which an asset is moved from weaker hands to stronger hands. To wit, I believe we will continue to see ongoing declines in home values on a going forward basis.
A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers as provided by the WSJ:
“The tone of this report was clearly weak, and it comes at a time when markets were beginning to sense and price in (perhaps prematurely so) a stabilization in the U.S. housing market,” said Millan L. B. Mulraine of TD Securities. “Despite the encouraging signs that have been coming from the other housing market reports, we continue to highlight the risks that the correction in the U.S. housing market may continue for some time as the worsening labor market conditions and historically high inventory of unsold homes continue to off-set the favorable affordability conditions.”
That overhang of inventory will be perpetuated via the mortgage modification process. A full numerical chart highlighting the dynamics within respective metro regions is quite interesting. Not sure why Minneapolis is showing the greatest declines. Anybody who can provide color on the situation in MN, it would be deeply appreciated. Away from that, the other locales suffering the greatest declines continue to be in the obvious areas (Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami). Charlotte, Dallas, and Denver are displaying signs of stability.
Please share insights on housing in your region!!
LD
(About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)
Home Prices, by Metro Area
Change, Change, Change
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2009 7:46 AM |
How are we as a nation handling the changes going on in our country?
Change is stressful, especially when the change is involuntary. The ability to adapt to change is critically important in order to minimize the stress, maximize the opportunities, and move forward in life. The ability to adapt to change and prosper from it is the premise for one of my recommended books in the Sense on Cents Reading Room, Who Moved My Cheese?: An Amazing Way to Deal with Change in Your Work and in Your Life by Spencer Johnson, M.D.
I first read this book in early 2001 prompted by the merger of Chase Manhattan and JP Morgan. Dare I say the changes ongoing in our economy and world render the merger of two large banks rather pedestrian. That said, the lessons in Johnson’s book apply to professional and personal situations. I have recommended this book often.
I was reminded of Johnson’s Who Moved My Cheese? this morning when reading an article in the Financial Times, When Austerity Does Not Come Easily:
When the global economic crisis first hit, it was natural to assume that the poorer and more recent democracies would be most vulnerable to a political backlash.
But perhaps we are looking for trouble in the wrong places. It could be that it will be the richer democracies, such as Britain and the US, that find it most difficult to adapt to the politics of austerity.
While this message is neither pleasant nor easily broached, I truly appreciate it and commend Gideon Rachman for writing about it. In regard to change, our country needs to initially understand, willingly accept, hopefully embrace, and then boldly move forward. I think we are still in the very early stages of the “initially understand” phase.
While the Obama administration has put forth large measures and grand programs under the guise of change, I view many of these measures as “more of the same.” That is, inflated government spending and bureaucracy to facilitate living beyond our means. The simple fact is, a country, corporation, municipality, or individual that perpetually lives with an excessive and growing debt burden is postponing and potentially eliminating the chance for real prosperity.
Market analysts, media mavens, and government officials regularly call for an end to our recession in 2009 and a return to “normal.” I view this time in dramatically different fashion. I believe we are experiencing not only an economic test, but also a test of national character. (more…)
Revisiting a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2009 1:01 PM |
As if we do not have enough issues to deal with here in our own backyard, we are reminded on Memorial Day, of all days, just how mad and unsettling the state of our world happens to be. I broached this theme on April 5th, but recent international events make it prudent to revisit.
While the issues in North Korea and the Middle East deal primarily with military and political conflicts, they most definitely impact our financial markets. How so? Any time we are faced with increased risks of any sort, the markets incorporate them into prices.
Going to the Far East, we encounter Kim Jong Il of North Korea detonating a nuclear bomb. As reported by CNN, World Outraged by North Korea’s Latest Nuke Test. How will Obama and world leaders respond? A bully left unchecked will continue to try to move his sphere of influence:
“North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community,” the White House said. “The danger posed by North Korea’s threatening activities warrants action by the international community.”
While the test was not a surprise, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it showed Pyongyang was becoming “increasingly belligerent.”
Moving into the Middle East, we encounter a cauldron continuing to boil. Reuters reports, Iran Sends Warships to Gulf of Aden:
Iran has sent six warships to international waters, including the Gulf of Aden, to show its ability to confront any foreign threats, its naval commander said on Monday.
Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, quoted by the ISNA news agency, made the announcement five days after Iran said it test-fired a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,200 miles), putting Israel and U.S. bases in the area within reach.
Putting “The Fix” in the PPIP
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2009 7:03 AM |
Is the Obama administration once again going to be party to “underworld” business principles in an attempt to promote the success of a program to clean up the banks? Let’s go down into ‘the street.’
The TALF (Term Asset Based Lending Facility) so far has had middling success. The PPIP (Public-Private Investment Partnership) is yet to be rolled out. Investors have been reluctant to participate in these programs, despite attractive financing terms, because of concerns in partnering with a capricious and at times vindictive Uncle Sam. These programs, as with any transactional program, have one major potential flaw: self-dealing. I highlighted this point on April 7th in my post Games of Chance: TALF, PPIP, TARP, FDIC, FASB. I wrote:
Fast forward to May 27th and this version of the “game” is being proposed by the dealers. The Wall Street Journal highlights, Banks Aiming to Play Both Sides of Coin:
I can already hear the pontificating on how rigorous the oversight of this program will be. Geithner and team will produce a set of selling points to “make the case.” All that said, games of chance are actually exceedingly simple. The dealer and another player or two fabricate a reasonable chance for success for new participants (taxpayers) while knowing full well the table is tilted, the “fix” is baked in, and the “dough” is going home with them. The WSJ highlights these concerns:
The fact that banks want to “play the game” again truly indicates the character and integrity of this crowd. Self-dealing is common practice in the underworld. We have witnessed the violation of private contracts in the housing and automotive sectors.
Will Geithner and team allow taxpayers to be run over once again via self-dealing within the PPIP?
LD
Tags: Arthur Levitt comments on PPIP, attractive terms in TALF and PPIP, banks lobbying FDIC, banks self-dealing, banks self-dealing in TALF and PPIP, FDIC, games of chance, insider dealing in TALF and PPIP, issues with TALF and PPIP, Legacy Loan Program, Obama "underworld" practices, PPIP, PPIP self-dealing, problems with TALF and PPIP, TALF, TARP funding for PPIP, will banks sell assets via PPIP, will hedge funds participate in TALF and PPIP?, will TALF work?
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