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HomeAfternoon Market Update April 3rd
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 3rd, 2009 4:01 PM |
On the heels of the G-20 and the April Unemployment Report, there are some interesting crosscurrents playing out in the market. The price action strikes me as inconsistent. Given some of these inconsistencies, I believe the price action actually reflects the squaring of positions of many short term traders who are being tested.
Equities: despite an Unemployment Report that is in line with expectations, this report was weaker than expectations. That weakness is reflected in the revisions to January’s report and the decline in the hourly workweek. Despite the ongoing economic weakness, stocks are slightly higher on the day and are closing out the 4th strong week in a row.
Bonds: typically economic weakness would indicate a decline in interest rates and a move higher in bonds. Market activity is reflecting the exact opposite. 10 year U.S. government bonds are significantly lower in price with the rate on these bonds back up to 2.90%, which is higher by 12 basis points on the day. (more…)
32 Bid/84 Ask
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 3rd, 2009 11:14 AM |
Will banks sell toxic assets? This question is being asked ad nauseum. Investors have indicated a willingness to purchase at the right price. That price has moved up somewhat given the assistance of government financing (read this as taxpayer financing) and government assumption of losses (read this as taxpayer assumption of losses). Bank executives have indicated a willingness to sell, “at the right price.” Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, made that assertion again this morning.
What’s the right price? Well, a Bloomberg survey of investors and banks provided indicated levels of interest as to what the right price for certain of these toxic assets might be. Investors are willing to pay 32 cents on the dollar. Banks are willing to sell at 84 cents on the dollar. In Wall street parlance, between those levels one can drive many Mack trucks!!
Aside from the disparity in perceived value, banks now are further incentivized not to sell given the reprieve they received just yesterday in the relaxation of the mark to market. (more…)
April Unemployment Report: UPDATE!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 3rd, 2009 7:26 AM |
Before this morning’s numbers were released, I published:
The widely anticipated April Unemployment Report will be released at 8:30 am EST. Concerns over this report have increased over the last two days given a report from ADP on Wednesday which forecast an increasing rate of decline in employment. Additionally, Weekly Jobless Claims increased yesterday.
Over and above the actual report, the Bureau of Labor has consistently revised prior months’ numbers worse than initially reported. Aside from the headline print, a thorough analysis needs to focus on these revisions. I will report back shortly after 8:30pm with the actual numbers!!
Last month’s numbers and expectations for this report are as follows:
**note: I have now included the actual numbers which were reported at 8:30 a.m.:
Unemployment Rate
March 8.1%
expected 8.5%
April Report 8.5%
The UnderEmployment Rate is 15.6% as reported by Bloomberg! This rate incorporates unemployed (not working, but looking for work), underemployed (working part-time, but would prefer full-time), and unemployed, having given up looking for work. These last two groups are not included in the reported 8.5% unemployment rate.
Non-farm Payroll
March Report 651k
April expected 658k
April Report 663K
January Revision from 655k to 741k
Avg Hourly Earnings
March Report +.2%
April expected +.2%
April Report +.2
Avg Hourly Workweek
March Report 33.3 hours
April expected 33.3 hours
April Report 33.2 hours
Analysts hit the numbers, as they came in as expected. Wow! Are the analysts that good or are these numbers being “managed” or “massaged” so as not to overly upset the markets? Well, we did have a significant revision to January’s report. Let’s dig deeper!!
Call me paranoid, but when a January Non-Farm Payroll number is revised from a loss of 655k jobs to 741k and no revision is provided for February, I immediately ask why.
The fact that the average hourly workweek actually declined by .1 from 33.3 hours to 33.2 hours is very meaningful. With job losses increasing, and the remaining workers actually working fewer hours, this is an indication of declining flow of orders.
No improvement in average hourly earnings, so no expectation of improvement in consumer spending.
Market reaction: bonds slightly lower. Stocks initially popped higher but are now selling off slightly.
The WSJ reports: Recession Job Losses Top 5 Million
Aside from these numbers, in regard to the G-20, the big winner seems to be the International Monetary Fund. It is reported that the IMF will receive $1 trillion to allocate to emerging economies and developing countries. It was not widely reported that some of those funds had already been committed to the IMF, so it is not “new” money. The old double counting trick!!
LD
Let’s Revisit the Baltic Dry Index
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 10:52 PM |
***Editor’s note: the Baltic Dry Index does not get much attention in the news. This piece has been bumped up from its initial publication at 9:01 a.m.
I have not looked at this shipping index in a while. Is the rally in equities forecasting a pickup in shipping and thus an increase in the Baltic Dry Index? The WSJ sheds light on this critically important index:
One number to watch today is the behavior of the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost of shipping raw materials around the globe. It’s a volatile measure, but can be a useful signal of shifting trends in global demand. The index collapsed last year, starting in May, foreshadowing the worsening recession.
Some economists have pointed to it recently as a sign that the worst of the recession might be over. The index nearly tripled between the beginning of the year and March 10. But the green shoot is wilting. It’s been down for 16 straight trading sessions, by 31% in all. A drop today would make 17 straight, and could take wind out of the sails of the small recovery crowd on Wall Street. In all, the index is down 87% from its May 20 high.
I find it very interesting that the index is down 31% over the last few weeks, while the equity market is up 20+% in the same time frame. Granted the BDI had tripled during the first few months of 2009, but do not forget that it had declined close to 95% from last May. I view a tripling of the BDI in the same context as an analyst indicating Citigroup’s stock is up 150% from $1.00!! Congratulations!!
If global economic conditions were stabilizing without necessarily improving, I would think the BDI would also be stabilizing. The fact that it is declining at this juncture concerns me.
Many market analysts and political pundits effectively tell us in true Wizard of Oz fashion to “disregard that man behind the curtain.” In navigating the economic landscape, and trying to get to the Emerald City, let’s keep our eye on all the indices.
LD
Sense on Cents Central Station
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 4:24 PM |
***UPDATE: The live event has ended, but you can scroll through the topics we discussed by clicking on the “Replay” icon on the chat window at the end of this post.***
Join me this evening beginning at 8:30 p.m. ET for Sense on Cents Central Station. This endeavor is a few hours of written Q/A and live chat with your resident host, Larry Doyle. I like to utilize the theme of a ride on the rails, so please allow me to expound.
With so many cross currents at play in the markets, economy, and world of global finance, where can one go to develop a framework of understanding, enjoy the company of friends, and make sense of the madness? Welcome to Sense on Cents Central Station. Our ride departs at 8:30 p.m. with an expected return at 10:30 p.m. (I’m hoping this time frame allows our West Coast friends to join in). While we traverse the curves along our track, we can address a wide range of issues, including: the G-20 summit, FASB’s vote to ease mark-to-market, Obama’s economic plans, Secretary Geithner’s outlook, the market performance this week, month, and year to date, developments overseas, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, issues of personal finance, career planning, or anything else on your mind. (more…)
G-20: Commitments, Comments, Questions!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 1:14 PM |
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown just delivered a statement highlighting the results of the G-20 conference in London. There must have been a lot of work done behind the scenes over the last few months because it’s hard to imagine there was a lot of debate over issues within a 36 hour time frame at this conference. I will grant the world’s political leaders their due as it is most important at times like these to convey a strong, uniform front.
Let’s review the objectives and commitments, each followed by questions and/or comments that I have:
1. Address countries providing tax havens.
My question: who will police?
2. Develop a Financial Accounting Stability Board to regulate currently unregulated financial entities, primarily hedge funds.
My questions: how will it be staffed, operated, and judgments adjudicated? (I don’t like FASB as the acronym to be confused with Federal Accounting Standards Board)
3. Develop global policies and outline to address compensation
My questions: who and how will this be implemented? how will it be regulated? will there be punishments for those not participating?
4. Develop a global systemic risk oversight body.
My Question: who and how? (more…)
Putting Perfume on a Pig!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 9:45 AM |
***Bumped up from original publication time of 7:30AM. The FASB has now just voted its approval of the change in mark-to-market accounting.
It is speculated that the FASB (Federal Accounting Standards Board) will today relax its rule known as the mark-to-market. This rule requires firms under the FASB’s purview to mark their assets to changing market prices on an ongoing basis. The institutions subject to this rule have been lobbying FASB and Congress for a change because the markets for these assets have imploded and in certain cases totally dried up.
What does the FASB plan to do? The FASB is going to cave to the lobbying pressure and will allow institutions to use their own internal models based upon cash flow analysis to price these assets. This change in the mark-to-market will not only allow institutions the flexibility to not mark down certain assets, but simultaneously mark up other assets.
The media only presents the impacted assets as “hard to value” or the dreaded “mortgage-backed securities” or “securitized assets”. In fact, many of these assets are very simple and plain vanilla. Let’s enter the world of the Federal Home Loan Banks.
The FHLB system consists of 12 regional banks and it provides liquidity (capital) for its respective members to operate. The FHLB system invests its own capital, primarily in plain vanilla conventional mortgages (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae) and Jumbo ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) and fixed-rate pass-thrus. Certain banks within the FHLB system may have moved slightly off the plain vanilla path to purchase a small percentage of sub-prime assets, but that was much more the exception than the norm. (more…)
Is The Market Overbought?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2009 9:55 PM |
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece on whether the market was oversold. Allow me to re-introduce a few topics . . .
The market valuation of any asset is determined by three factors:
1. Fundamentals: measures items such as cash flow analysis, cost-benefit analysis, earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA)
2. Technicals: measured by regression of price movements to determine overbought and oversold conditions
3. Psychology: measured by unscientific surveys of market participants
And now the update:
1st quarter earnings are due out over the next few weeks. Most analysts and managers I follow believe these earnings will be lower than expectations and that 4th quarter 2008 earnings will be revised lower. Will companies provide guidance going forward? Many companies have refrained given the economic uncertainty. (more…)
Hancock Tower Cut In Half
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2009 2:59 PM |
Many people may not fully appreciate the dynamics of the “shadow banking system.” Credit for consumers, small business, and corporations is still largely a function of bank lending. Many parts of our economy are railing on banks for not providing more credit. The banks do deserve plenty of blame for not allocating more credit and at reasonable rates (primarily consumer credit). That said, the “shadow banking system” (funds generated by securitizing assets) has largely shut down.
The stream of credit from the “shadow banking system” represented approximately 40% of the credit injected into our economy. While plenty of people clearly feel this lack of credit at the individual level, what does it mean at the corporate level?
Let’s review a major real estate transaction. Bloomberg reports, Hancock Tower Sells at About Half Price to Normandy. This tower is a first class office building in a prime Boston location. (more…)
Dodd’s Production Run Is Way Down!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2009 1:51 PM |
Any salesperson on Wall Street is always faced with the question as to the nature of his book of business. Meaning, not only what type of business he transacts but even more importantly, with whom does he do business. While there are many fabulous salespeople on Wall Street, sales managers are forever reviewing account coverage assignments. Given these account reviews and changes, I always maintained that there was not a lot of “security” in the securities business. Ultimately, a salesperson is only as good as his book, meaning the depth and breadth of relationships.
Putting a twist on this coverage model, it appears as if Senator Chris Dodd has a problem. Aside from pure partisan politics in the midst of an economic tsunami, Dodd’s personal relationships with many financial companies has run its course. I do not mean to say that Dodd and these individuals may not maintain an ongoing relationship, but the fact is a number of financial firms which supported Dodd over the years are either bankrupt, merged, or wards of the state. (Freddie, Fannie, AIG, Citi)
Bloomberg reports:
The Democrat has less than half the campaign cash he had at a comparable point in his last re-election bid, when he faced far fewer hurdles. Last year, he emptied an account built up largely through financial-company employees’ donations to pay for a presidential run; now, he has to replenish his coffers even as the firms his panel regulates struggle with losses and back away from their one-time champion turned critic.
