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HomeHousing Plans Promote Long, Slow Decline
Posted by senseoncents on February 26th, 2010 9:32 AM |
Why do I remain overall bearish on housing?
All reports to the contrary, the pace of delinquencies will continue to steadily pressure housing — especially in selected markets.
While the Obama administration is dogged by the issues within housing, I continue to believe that their approach is more exacerbating the situation than improving it. What is the crux of the problem within housing? The law of unintended consequences which changes the behaviors of some, given the engagement with others.
Bloomberg provides some insights on Obama’s new proposals toward housing in writing, Obama May Prohibit Home-Loan Foreclosures Without Preview:
The Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program. (more…)
Mortgage Meltdown Continues
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 21st, 2009 1:22 PM |
While the equity market continues its ascent into the heavens, our housing market continues its descent into hell.
How long can these two indicators continue their contradictory movements? It is extremely hard to believe that the price actions and underlying dynamics in these indices can continue for an extended period. While Uncle Sam’s liquidity has been phenomenal in generating support for the equity markets, it has been decidedly less supportive to the housing market.
The Wall Street Journal addresses the ongoing meltdown in the housing and mortgage markets in writing, Mortgage Markets Continued to Falter in 3rd Quarter:
The U.S. housing market continued to deteriorate in the third quarter as even the most credit-worthy borrowers increasingly fell behind on their mortgages, highlighting the problems policy makers have faced in trying to address the problem.
A new report from the Office of Thrift Supervision and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency found that the percentage of current and performing mortgages dropped for the sixth consecutive quarter, as foreclosures in process topped 1 million mortgages at the end of September. The report covers roughly 34 million loans totaling $6 trillion in principal balances, or approximately 65% of the U.S. mortgage market.
The regulators said that serious delinquencies, loans that are at least 60 days past due, increased across all loan categories and climbed to 6.2% of the loans in the portfolio during the third quarter. The report said that just 67.7% of option adjustable-rate mortgages were considered current at the end of the third quarter, while 27.9% were either seriously delinquent or in the process of foreclosure. (more…)
UPDATE: Mortgage Modifications Leading to Mortgage Cram-Downs
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 11th, 2009 11:38 AM |
Despite overwhelming efforts on the part of Uncle Sam, the simple fact of the matter is the program to successfully and permanently modify mortgages has not gained truly meaningful traction. Public pressure on mortgage servicers specifically and the mortgage modification program at large have generated a slight, but hardly significant, increase in permanent modifications over the last month. Let’s review the statistics provided by Uncle Sam’s Making Home Affordable Program:
(more…)
Obama Administration Ready to Admit Failure of Mortgage Modification Program
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2009 11:19 AM |
Throwing good money after bad is not a practice that generates long term success and prosperity. In fact, the unintended consequences and costs of dysfunctional government programs should never be discounted. While intentions of certain programs may be noble, the practicality of Uncle Sam’s attempt to manipulate a market is not easily achieved. I am writing about the results of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program.
I highlighted the state of this program in October in writing, “Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant”:
Status of Efforts
• 63 servicers had signed participation agreements for the first-lien modification program;
• More than 1.3 million solicitation letters for HAMP loan modifications to borrowers;
• More than 328,000 HAMP trial modification offers to borrowers;
• More than 209,000 HAMP trial modifications had started;. . . and of the 209,000 mortgage modifications (.3% of total homeowners) started in the country, how are we doing?
• 1,080 borrowers had successfully completed the trial period and received HAMP modifications.
Yep. A whopping 1,080 borrowers have successfully completed the trial period and received modifications. A full .5% of those modifications that had started. Yes, a full 1,080 homeowners. I am sure there are plenty of homeowners still in the trial period, but even 209,000 homeowners as a percentage of the overall housing market is hardly significant.
What have we learned about housing over the last few months? Servicers have little interest in this program. Homeowners who are more than 30 days past due also have little interest in this program. The number 1,080 is clear evidence of that and, in my opinion, renders the entire mortgage modification program statistically insignificant.
Today we learn the Obama administration will release details later this week indicating that 6% of those mortgages in the modification process have now or will ultimately be successfully and permanently modified. (more…)
Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 29th, 2009 4:16 PM |
How meaningful is the mortgage modification program? What have we gotten for the billions committed to this initiative? Are you sitting down?
For frame of reference, the U.S. Census Housing Data indicates there were 110.3 million occupied housing units in the country in 2007. Of that number, 68.1% were owner-occupied. Simple math tells us 75.1 million people owned their home at that point.
Various studies indicate that approximately one of every three homeowners are now ‘underwater’ (mortgage balance exceeds home value). Many analysts believe that number is headed higher. A Deutsche Bank analyst projects one of every two homeowners will ultimately be ‘underwater.’
Simple math indicates that approximately 25 million homeowners are underwater. What is being done to support these homeowners? Uncle Sam’s primary program to support this growing problem is the ‘mortgage modification’ program. This program is supposed to be driven by mortgage servicers. How is it working? Let’s navigate. (more…)
Uncle Sam’s New Mousetrap to Stem Foreclosures
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 13th, 2009 2:40 PM |
Despite hundreds of billions of dollars in support of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Federal Housing Association, and mortgage modifications, our housing market continues to be swamped with an ever increasing wave of foreclosures. The shadow supply of homes overhanging the market is estimated to be in the realm of 15 month’s worth. Last week, I wrote that Washington needed to address this issue in my post “Washington Needs a New Housing Model.”
Thanks to our friends at 12th Street Capital, we learn today that Treasury will release a new plan next week to stem the wave of foreclosures. How might this work? Let’s navigate a release which came from the Mortgage Banker’s Association convention currently ongoing in San Diego. Housing Wire reports, Treasury to Announce New Program to Avoid Foreclosure:
The United States Department of the Treasury is launching, with an official announcement expected next week, a new program to help ailing borrowers escape foreclosure.
The Chief of the Homeowner Preservation Office at the Treasury, Laurie Maggiano, released information on the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) while speaking at the MBA’s 96th Annual Convention going on in San Diego. The official launch is expected in the next week or so.
HAFA already holds the support of Fannie, according to a VP at the agency, Eric Schuppenhauer, who believes the new program allows borrowers in imminent default to “make a graceful exit” from their home. HAFA will keep the stigma associated with foreclosure away from the borrowers, he added, and help keep communities intact.
Maggiano adds that HAFA will offer financial incentives to both servicers and borrowers, and associated secondary investors, in order to facilitate a short sale or deed in lieu of the property.
Borrowers will need to be Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP)-eligible and Maggiano released some stats for the crowd’s consumption. 2,484,783 homeowners have requested information on HAMP. 757,955 HAMP plans were offered. 487,081 trials are underway.
Other additional [1] incentives to the short sale industry are nearly developed. The IRS will soon offer a 4506EZ form that will enable servicers to pre-fill out the information so that it only requires a borrower’s signature. It also will include softer language so as not put potential participants off.
For those unaware, a “short sale” entails a home being sold for less than the balance of the mortgage. The homeowner is not held responsible or liable for making up the difference between the proceeds generated by the sale and the mortgage balance. That difference is eaten by whomever ‘owns’ or is holding the mortgage. The owner or holder could be the originator if that entity never sold the mortgage. The owner or holder could be a trust on behalf of investors if the loan had been securitized.
What is the motivation to promote short sales rather than allowing the foreclosure process to run its course? Short sales may be short in terms of proceeds although they are not necessarily short in terms of time. That said, short sales typically do expedite the sale of a home. Short sales have typically occurred at a 10-20% discount to the market. Why? The homes have not been prepared for sale, meaning ‘dressed up.’
The monetary incentive provided to mortgage servicers to promote short sales will likely have a similar impact as the monetary incentive provided to modify mortgages. What has that impact been? Not much.
While many of Uncle Sam’s programs have been designed to buy time and allow the market and economy to recover, that approach has proven not to work so far in housing. Will this short sale program work to support housing? I doubt it.
I think what this program will look to achieve is to actually lessen the negative stigma associated with the term foreclosure. If Uncle Sam can say foreclosures are declining, he can then wave the flag as making progress on housing. What he will be doing, however, is merely ‘redefining’ foreclosure or in other words, ‘putting perfume on a pig.’
This program theoretically will negatively impact bank capital as banks will be forced to take a loss sooner rather than later on those mortgages they hold which are involved in short sales.
Aside from that development, real integrity in this process would include:
>> Add short sales to foreclosures as a more robust measure of housing supply stemming from delinquent mortgages.
>> Assess home prices along with rental rates to measure overall cost of housing.
LD
Obama Administration Won’t Release Mortgage Modification Figures; Sense on Cents Already Did
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 11th, 2009 2:50 PM |
No news is good news, right?
Well, that may work in raising teenagers but when it comes to public policy in general and housing policy specifically the American public deserves to know what is going on. Why? American taxpayers are picking up the tab, that’s why.
Regrettably, our wizards in Washington are often reluctant to provide the transparency the American public deserves.
I witness this dynamic again today in reviewing a story on the mortgage modification program. The Wall Street Journal puts a positive spin on developments in the mortgage modification process by writing, Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start:
Won’t release figures on completed modifications until December? Why not? What’s up with that? (more…)
Tags: HAMP, housing policy, Making Home Affordable, mortgage modifications, Mortgage Program GAthers Steam After Slow Start, Obama administration won't release successful mortgage modifications, review of TARP, success of mortgage modifications, Treasury comments on mortgage modifications
Posted in General, Housing Crisis, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Obama Administration | 6 Comments »