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What Was The ‘Real’ Level of 1st Qtr GDP?

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 26th, 2014 8:37 AM |

Anyone with a modicum of ‘sense on cents’ is well aware of the maxim ‘garbage in, garbage out.’

If we are to believe that the inflation data reported by Uncle Sam does not properly capture the true level of price increases in our economy — did somebody say intentionally misleading — then the immediate question begs, what is the real level of economic activity in the nation?

Recall that real GDP is defined as:

A measure of economic growth from one period to another expressed as a percentage and adjusted for inflation (i.e. expressed in real as opposed to nominal terms). The real economic growth rate is a measure of the rate of change that a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) experiences from one year to another. 

If inflation is under reported, and the rate of change in our economic growth is a known figure, then by definition the output (that is, real GDP) will be overstated. So I repeat my question: What is the real level, that is a more honest and accurate assessment, of our 1st quarter GDP? Read the rest »


1st Qtr GDP (-2.9%) Turns Corner, Goes Off Cliff

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 25th, 2014 9:38 AM |

Are you sick of being lied to?

Virtually every economist and political pundit came into 2014 touting this year as being the one in which our economy turns the corner. Well, in the first quarter of the year I guess we did turn the corner . . . and in doing so ran right off the proverbial cliff.

How could so many be so wrong by such a wide margin in assessing the health and projection of our economy? I will tell you: when the virtues of truth, transparency, and integrity are subjugated to such an extent at the behest of the financial, political, and regulatory ruling triumvirate, we fail to get a fair and honest reading as to what is really going on in our economy, let alone our nation.  Read the rest »


Pope Francis: A True Leader and Inspiration

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 24th, 2014 7:20 AM |

Given the many challenges facing us these days, our nation and world badly need real leaders.

How do I define a leader? An individual who puts the interests of others ahead of his own, does what is right with no regard for how it will impact him/her personally, and speaks up in forceful fashion when it is far more convenient and conducive to sit down or speak purely in political terms.

If we were to hold the bar at an appropriately elevated level, who in America and the world truly define what it is to be a leader? We can come up with some selected individuals perhaps, but by my standards we have a serious lack of true leaders both nationally and globally at this point in time. Fortunately, we can look to Pope Francis if we care to envision a real leader. Read the rest »


Charles Lewis: 935 Lies/The Future of Truth and the Decline of America’s Moral Integrity

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 23rd, 2014 8:42 AM |

One of the best lines I ever read in The Wall Street Journal was attributed to then CEO of First Boston, Allen Wheat. When asked about a senior executive who had recently departed the firm, Wheat rhetorically inquired and responded, “How do you know when he is lying? His lips move.”

Regrettably, couldn’t we say the same about so many of our so called political and business leaders? I think there is little doubt.

Life in and around Washington, Wall Street, and elsewhere in America now seems much more to revolve around rationalization than integrity. With the media often complicit in allowing the lying to go fully unchecked, our society suffers. Against this backdrop, I am very excited to pick up a copy of a book scheduled to be released tomorrow entitled 935 Lies: The Future of Truth and the Decline of America’s Moral Integrity written by a new Sense on Cents favorite, but longstanding journalistic giant, Charles Lewis.

What are some of the Lies for The Ages, as designated by Lewis?: Read the rest »


Wikileaks: How Banks Will Continue to Rule the World

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2014 10:57 AM |

I had a little wind in my sails this morning when I saw a lead article in today’s Wall Street Journal regarding the pathetic investor protection provided by the meter maids at FINRA. While adding a little spice to the mix by commenting on that article, I got blown away by a tsunami coming from another direction.

Let’s navigate.

Not that there was ever any doubt that the major global banks rule the world (and will likely continue to do so), a riveting press release put out just yesterday by Wikileaks confirms this reality. Major props to Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism for bringing attention to the Wikileak press release, Secret Trade in Services Agreement (TISA). The serious students in the crowd will have plenty to chew on and digest in the Agreement.

For those more inclined to study from the Cliff Notes, let’s give thanks to Professor Jane Kelsey of the University of Auckland, New Zealand who brings real transparency to the proposed Agreement in her Analysis Article also released by Wikileaks:  Read the rest »


Charles Lewis: If Truth Be Told

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 19th, 2014 9:50 AM |

The truth.

The health of our democracy demands that we pursue and embrace the truth wherever it may take us and whatever we may learn. Regrettably as a nation the truth often largely escapes us due to forces wielded by those who might suffer in the process. We see evidence of this reality almost on a daily basis.

Investigative journalism is critically important to unearthing the truth yet this most noble undertaking remains under serious pressure. Fortunately we have individuals like Charles Lewis, one of the most highly distinguished investigative journalists in our nation’s history, to fight back against the tide.

Lewis provides fabulous context on this topic in a recently penned 3-part series entitled If Truth Be Told. In light of all that is going on in our nation, this series qualifies as an absolute must read and an instant Sense on Cents classic. As a teaser, I welcome providing a few snippets of Lewis’ work. Let’s navigate.  Read the rest »


Federal Reserve Quandary: Stagflation

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 18th, 2014 9:44 AM |

The Federal Reserve will wrap up its regularly scheduled meeting and release its highly anticipated statement this afternoon at 2pm. The markets always eagerly await this statement so as to read the tea leaves and see what they say about our economy and the impact on interest rates.

Do we really need to wait for 2pm, though, to determine what is really going on in our economy? I think not. What do we know? Plenty, although the financial media, government officials, and the bankers themselves are not always fully forthcoming in promoting the truth. Let’s navigate. Read the rest »


Senate Investigation of High Frequency Trading: Will We Learn Anything?

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 17th, 2014 8:58 AM |

The United States Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations is holding a hearing today to “examine conflicts of interest, investor loss of confidence, and high speed trading in U.S. stock markets.”

The hearing will focus on two specific conflicts of interest: payments by wholesale broker-dealers to retail brokers for their customer orders, known as “payment for order flow;” and “maker-taker” rebates or fees that, depending on the circumstances, exchanges either pay or charge to brokers for executing trades on their platforms.

While I hope that some meaningful discussion might expose some of the crony, if not corrupt, practices within our markets, if past is prologue I am prepared to be underwhelmed. Why so? Read the rest »


Uncle Sam Wants Names of VA Whistleblowers; POGO Protects Identities

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 16th, 2014 9:05 AM |

You do not need to read my blog to know the Veterans Administration has some serious issues that have impacted the health and well being of countless veterans. These issues are not new developments.

Very simply, the failures within the VA are due to a government that is badly mismanaged and often engaged in practices that are fraudulent, if not totally corrupt.

The VA has not only failed countless numbers of veterans but, in adding insult to injury, it has punished those internally who have tried to do the right thing. How so?

Whistleblowers who have brought attention to the fraud and corruption within the VA have not been embraced but rather ignored, intimidated, and often fired. As we well know, mismanagement, fraud, and corruption much prefer the cover of darkness than the light of transparency. Read the rest »


The IRS Scandal: “That’s a Lie”

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 14th, 2014 9:36 AM |

Saturday morning in America.

Should be a great day and a beautiful weekend with plenty of sports activity to captivate fans and fathers in the crowd. In the process of making the most of the weekend, though, let’s not lose sight of the fact that our nation remains under assault both from without and within.

As a father, I am very concerned for the future of this country. While I am concerned about the threat of terrorism and our fiscal condition among many other issues, my greatest concern actually centers on the lack of moral fiber and true leadership that are integral to the ongoing degradation of the rule of law in America.

Why so concerned — er, actually pissed off — on a beautiful Saturday morning? I am insulted, and hope you are as well, that we are forced to swallow such a line of horse$&it that e-mails within the IRS were lost because a computer crashed. This crock might only be compared to the junior high excuse that my dog ate my homework. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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