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HomeReview of Unemployment Report Jan 9, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 9th, 2009 10:04 AM |
***Meredith Whitney is indicating that despite the fact that banks raised $805 billion in capital in 2008 and had $125 billion injected via the TARP, the banking system will need to raise more capital in 2009. This is a clear signal that losses have not yet been recognized along with the likelihood that new losses are being incurred. A regional investment bank, Friedman Billings, believes the banking system needs $1.2 trillion in FRESH capital.
***It’s purely my speculation, but I would be willing to bet funds from “How Bernie ‘Madoff’ with $50 Billion” may have actually been directed to other hedge funds. If that is, in fact, the case the Ponzi scheme that started at Madoff may in turn spread. The fact that so many funds “put up the gates” which prevented investors from withdrawing funds is a very telling indication that this may have occurred. Some funds may have very legitimately utilized that approach and some may have not.
The widely anticipated employment report was released this morning at 8:30AM. Let’s dive right into the numbers and then decipher them:
Unemployment Rate: increased from 6.7% to 7.2% versus a consensus estimate increase to 7%. One must understand, though, that the actual unemployment rate ONLY tracks people out of work who are looking for work. If we were to incorporate discouraged workers, those out of work who have given up looking, then one of every ten workers in our country are currently unemployed. With a total workforce of approximately 175 million people and projections that the unemployment rate will move up another 1-3%, our economy is likely to lose another 3 million jobs!!
Non-Farm Payroll: (for those who do not traditionally track these stats, the NFP tracks the actual number of jobs gained or lost in the economy): for the month of December 2008, the economy lost 524k jobs versus consensus estimate of 525k. One may think the soothsayers had it right with their estimated call. However, both October’s and November’s NFP numbers were revised downward by 103k and 51k respectively. Thus, over the last three months of 2008 the U.S economy lost a total of 1.431 million jobs!!!
IT’S EASY TO FIND FAULT…especially if you’re clueless!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 11th, 2008 10:10 AM |
Given the pressure applied by the general public on elected officials who passed the $700bln dollar TARP (Treasury Asset Repurchase Program) it is not surprising that those very elected officials are now openly critical of Treasury. Nothing like casting a few aspersions to keep the crowd back home somewhat at bay. This statement is not to say that Treasury has not fumbled in certain aspects of this program. That said, as I have tried to highlight, there are so many holes to fill that one single, albeit massive, “tourniquet” is not going to cover an entire body riddled with life threatening wounds.
Read how “Watchdogs Chide Treasury on Bailout“…
For Congress to think that the economy would see near “immediate” positive reaction to the injection of capital into the system is both naive and ignorant. I am going to guess that most Congressmen failed Economics 101.
IMO Treasury should not have played “whack a mole” but should have proactively highlighted the areas of need throughout the system. In properly managing expectations it is always better to be as comprehensive as possible and simultaneously “under-promise and over-deliver”. Paulson and Bernanke along with Paulson’s boy wonder, Neel Kashkari, have played way too much defense and not enough offense. The risk they ran in this regard, though, is that they may have “spooked” the markets and “scared” the public. (more…)
