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Archive for November, 2008

Economic/Market Review 11/6/08

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 6th, 2008 9:00 PM |

****I hope that people can access this article which will appear in tomorrow’s WSJ. This piece gives a great recap of the very painful delevering (unwinding investments made with borrowed funds) for Citadel, one of the higher profile hedge funds in the business. — Wall Street Journal

Markets are down another 4-5% on the day and app 10% for the month. Today’s highlights (or lowlights…) being….

1. Goldman Sachs announces that they expect a loss of 300,000 jobs in tomorrow’s employment reports from Dept of Labor. Consensus estimate is that the economy lost 200-250,000 jobs. Markets are very nervous that this number will be even worse but regardless the overall rate is headed well north of 7%…

2. Cisco announced after yesterday’s market close that they had their first revenue decline in 5 years…

3. Blackstone (one of the largest private equity funds in the business) is down app 15% on negative earnings report and negative outlook…

4. Now for the good news…Wal-Mart has positive earnings and outlook for holiday season…this is a recession play …

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Economic/Market Highlights 11/5….Biggest Post Election Slump in History!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 6th, 2008 7:00 AM |

Today’s 5-6% market selloff is the biggest post-election slump in history. If you think the markets aren’t nervous enough already, the prospects of a Democratic Congress and White House added fuel to the fire.

I fully appreciate that the campaign and election captivated our hearts and minds and souls over the last days, weeks, and months. To that end I refrained recently from regular economic/market posts so as not to distract from the main focus. Against that backdrop, though, we all have bills to pay so back to work we go.

Our economy remains mired in a slump that I expect to only get worse over the next few quarters.

–Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan cautioned employees in Hong Kong that he does not foresee an economic recovery until 2010. JPM is currently the strongest banking institution in our country and has business in virtually every sector of commercial and investment banking. Dimon is sending a message to not only employees but even moreso to shareholders as to what he expects. We should all heed what he says.

–Dallas Fed governor said that he does not expect to see a positive GDP report until 2010. (more…)

What Does Barack Know That 375 Leading Economists Don’t??

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 1st, 2008 8:00 PM |

While there are a host of topics that deserve and have received significant attention in this election cycle, there is little doubt that the focus on our current economic condition and our future economic path is the issue that will carry the day and determine our next President-elect.

Regrettable or not, our political system promotes a level of confusion through misinformaton and disinformation. Where does one turn for solid advice and insight? Well, when we’re sick we’d all want access to and advice from the best doctors. When we have a legal issue, we’d all want access to and advice from the best lawyers. When we want the best education for our children, we’d all want access to and advice from the best teachers and professors. When we need spiritual guidance, we’d all want access to and advice from the best ministers. When we need input on what is going on in our business and economy, we’d all want access to and advice from the top economists. Well, guess what…..we do have that access!!!!!

ECONOMISTS FOR McCAIN IS AN INDEPENDENT, VOLUNTARY ASSOCIATION FOR ECONOMISTS WHO SUPPORT SENATOR JOHN McCAIN’S PLAN FOR AMERICA. IT IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ARM OF THE JOHN McCAIN 2008 CAMPAIGN. ECONOMISTS FOR McCAIN ACCEPTS NO FEES, DUES, DONATIONS, OR CONTRIBUTIONS.

WOW!! A forum that addresses the economic issues confronting our country and our world that is not biased or corrupted by money. Yes….do you feel better already?? I thought so.

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