Archive for May, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 2:34 PM |
The disaster unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico is enormous and will have an untold impact on our economy and environment. This tragedy could have been avoided. What a shame. There should be hell to pay by those charged with overseeing the oil industry.
Where were the regulators? A statement released just yesterday by the Department of Interior highlights evidence that the regulation of our oil industry in the Gulf has been quite incestuous. What’s a little incest without throwing in a healthy dose of sex, drugs, and football as well.
(more…)
Tags: 2005 Peach Bowl game, cost of oil spill in Gulf of Mexico, Department of Interior, Department of Interior release May 24 2010, ian Urbina New York Times, Interior Sex and Drugs 2.0, Lake Charles District Office of MMS, mining and mineral services, MMS, MMS District Manager to IG Obviously We're All Oil Industry, oversight of oil industry, POGO, regulation of oil industry, sex drugs and football
Posted in General | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 11:47 AM |
People can debate the relative strength of the economy all they want. I firmly believe that from a macro-level, our economy has years to go before it has a real chance to recover. Why years?
1. The banking system overall remains loaded with an excessive amount of delinquent loans. Uncle Sam will continue to siphon money from the American public and deliver it to the banks. In the process, these “earnings” will be utilized to write down the values of loans and securities it holds at inflated levels.
2. Credit will not truly flow until the health of banks, especially the smaller and community based banks, is substantially stronger. (more…)
Tags: AMA, America's banking industry, America's economy, American economy, American Jobbery Act, American Medical Association, another stimulus package, can we trust washington, community banks, cooking the books, delinquent loans, financial industry in America, health care legislation, health of banks in america, lack of trust in Washington, Medicare physician reimbursements, mini-stimulus, more stimulus spending, Obama Administration, Obama-care, Washington is part of the problem
Posted in General, Washington D.C. | 2 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 9:00 AM |
Global markets are down 2-3% overnight. What is going on?
From a military standpoint, all eyes are focused on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea’s admission of sinking a South Korean vessel in late March. How will the world respond? Will the U.S. issue some sort of warning shot across the North Korean bow? Will the international community, and especially those who treasure freedom, rally and aggressively denounce the North Korean’s aggression or will we witness what amounts to a ‘kumbaya’ session?
From an economic standpoint, all eyes are focused on the Euro-zone where fiscal pressures remain elevated. Today the focus is Spain. (more…)
Tags: banking issues in Spain and EU, banking problems in Spain, debt levels in Spain, debt/GDP, Euro-zone, European economy, European Union, IMF Article IV, IMF mission, IMF report on Spain, International Monetary Fund, issues in Spain, pension problems in Spain, problems in Spain, Spain, Spain economy issues, Spanish economy
Posted in General, International Monetary Fund, Spain | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 24th, 2010 10:25 AM |
Thanks to a loyal Sense on Cents reader for sharing amazing insights and perspectives from some of the best and brightest minds in the world of global finance today.
Like who? Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, unparalleled investor Jeremy Grantham, outspoken hedge fund manager Cliff Asness, SEC chair Mary Schapiro (ok, one exception), the extremely private but on Wall Street the extraordinarily highly regarded investor Baupost’s Seth Klarman, internationally renowned Eurasia’s Ian Bremmer, the distinguished Van Hoisington, and noted short seller Jim Chanos.
Their views were put forth at the recently completed CFA Institute annual conference in Boston. There is so much good material here that I beg readers to tag this post and refer to it often. Given the wealth of thoughtful opinion and analyses covering literally every angle of our global economic landscape, one would be hard pressed to digest and process this in one reading. Do yourself the favor, though, and revisit. The wisdom provided here is precious and not commonly found. (more…)
Tags: 2 and 20 model, CFA Institute conference, Chinese risks, Cliff Asness views from CFA Institute conference, costs of moral hazards, Dan Fuss views at CFA Institute conference, deflation given capacity utilization, ethical deterioration in finance, flash crash, global deleveraging, gold, Grantham Mayo, Ian Bremmer views at CFA Institute conference, inflation vs disinflation vs deflation, is Obama a socialist, jason Zweig interview with Seth Klarman, Jeremy Grantham views at CFA Institute conference, Jim Chanos views at CFA Institute conference, John Malvey views at CFA Institute conference, M1 vs M2, MAry Schapiro views from CFA Institute conference, money multiplier, more lawsuits on Wall Street, North Korea risk, Obama, outlook for China, Professor Kenneth Rogoff at CFA Institute conference, public debt vs private debt, rate of unemployment, risks in Iran, Sense on Cents, Seth Klarman of Baupost views at CFA Institute conference, shock and awe in Greece, threats between China and India, Twinkie Market, US vs Japan, Van Hoisington views at CFA Institute conference, velocity of money, when will Fed tighten, who is Seth Klarman
Posted in General | 6 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 22nd, 2010 10:00 AM |
UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.
What really happened in the markets on Thursday May 6th? Can regulators truly address the underlying issues that caused the ‘flash crash’ or are our equity exchanges fundamentally and structurally broken?
How can you protect yourself in the face of such unbelievable volatility? Who benefits and who loses in the face of this volatility?
Will circuit breakers proposed by regulators work? Will we witness more days like May 6th?
If you have any interest in our markets and our economy, you will not want to miss my show this Sunday evening from 8-9pm ET as No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Back Joe Saluzzi. >>>> (more…)
Tags: algorithmic trading, are the equity exchanges structurally broken, BATS, circuit breakers, flash crash, high frequency trading, Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading, market volatility, NASDAQ, No Quarter Radio Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, NYSE Euronext, what really happened on May 6th, will May 6th happen again
Posted in General, No Quarter Radio, Sense on Cents | 2 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 21st, 2010 9:05 AM |
In the midst of all the legislative wrangling in Washington and the financial gyrations on Wall Street, what does it all mean for everyday American investors? I am not so sure it means all that much. How much are everyday Americans impacted by proprietary trading, derivatives, merged regulators? Very little actually. I am not writing this to discount the proposed financial regulatory reform coming out of Washington, but I remain underwhelmed that it will truly protect everyday investors from the ways of Wall Street.
To this end, I am happy to propose my own Sense on Cents Financial Reforms which I believe regulators should impose on financial intermediaries (brokers, bankers, money managers, et al). I am not only proposing these reforms here, but I am sharing them today with Washington based financial regulators. In deference to my readers, you’re getting the first look. Feel free to share your thoughts on my proposed reforms, and add others which you believe should be implemented. (more…)
Tags: caveat emptor, competency risks, corporate credit risks, counterparty risks, currency risks, derivatives, extension risks, financial reforms, financial regulation, financial regulators, financial regulatory reforms, FINRA, how will financial regulatory reforms impact everyday Americans, interest rate risks, investment risks, liquidity risks, market risks, options, prepayment risks, proprietary trading, Risk Parameters, SEC, Sense on Cents, structure risks, transparency risks, volatility risks, Wall Street, what is a prospectus
Posted in General, regulation, Wall Street | 8 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 20th, 2010 4:08 PM |
Thank you to a loyal Sense on Cents reader for providing a recently released report by the U. S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform entitled The SEC: Designed for Failure.
Much of what the American public has been fed about the SEC has been produced by the SEC itself. With all due respect to SEC Office of Inspector General David Kotz, who is widely respected, the other internal reports produced by the SEC have the stamp of career regulator Mary Schapiro. Regular readers of Sense on Cents know I have little regard for Mary.
This Congressional committee is led by Darrell Issa (R-CA). The report highlights that amongst the SEC’s issues, a lack of funding was not one of them. What else did the report find? What does it recommend?
Executive Summary (more…)
Tags: Darrell Issa, FINRA, Harry Markopolos, Mary Schapiro, SEC Designed for Failure, SEC IG David Kotz, SEC report by Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Posted in General, SEC | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 20th, 2010 2:44 PM |
While financial media and the financial industry tend to focus on the day to day, I believe we are far better served to look at the big picture and chart the major market averages over a longer time frame. To that end, what does a 3 year chart of the Dow tell us? Let’s navigate.

The Dow topped out at slightly over the 14000 level in the 4th quarter of 2007. We bottomed at approximately 6600 in March 2009. The Dow moved to a recent high of approximately 11,300 and is now trading at 10,200.
What do these numbers represent? (more…)
Tags: charting the Dow, DJIA chart for 3 years, Fibonacci Retracement levels, support and resistance levels
Posted in General | No Comments »