Comments on: “Nobody Has Ever Seen This Market” http://www.senseoncents.com/2009/11/nobody-has-ever-seen-this-market/ Navigating the Economic Landscape Fri, 19 Mar 2010 05:25:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Dave http://www.senseoncents.com/2009/11/nobody-has-ever-seen-this-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7395 Dave Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:34:39 +0000 http://www.senseoncents.com/?p=12782#comment-7395 I think many people are looking back at the 20th century to study bull/bear markets to identify longer term market direction. I see no period in the 20th century where there were two back to back %50+ bear markets over a rolling 9 year period. The 20th century was the long story of the rise of the USA as a world power. The 21st may not unfold in the same manner. All the buy and hold mantra is predicated on the market always going up which was the truth of the 20th century. But ... If you look back at the 18th and 19th century stock markets you can see secular bear markets that would break the back of even a Warren Buffet style buy and hold investor. The South Sea Bubble and its aftermath in 1720 created a long sideways bear market on the London stock exchange that lasted a HUMAN LIFETIME !!! If I printed out a chart of the S&P 500 and traveled back in time to London in the 1800's the reaction of an investor in that time period to what has taken placed between 1998-2009 would be a yawn, for him the 1998-2009 S&P 500 would represent garden variety stock market volatility. I think many people are looking back at the 20th century to study bull/bear markets to identify longer term market direction. I see no period in the 20th century where there were two back to back %50+ bear markets over a rolling 9 year period. The 20th century was the long story of the rise of the USA as a world power. The 21st may not unfold in the same manner. All the buy and hold mantra is predicated on the market always going up which was the truth of the 20th century.

But …

If you look back at the 18th and 19th century stock markets you can see secular bear markets that would break the back of even a Warren Buffet style buy and hold investor. The South Sea Bubble and its aftermath in 1720 created a long sideways bear market on the London stock exchange that lasted a HUMAN LIFETIME !!!

If I printed out a chart of the S&P 500 and traveled back in time to London in the 1800’s the reaction of an investor in that time period to what has taken placed between 1998-2009 would be a yawn, for him the 1998-2009 S&P 500 would represent garden variety stock market volatility.

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